Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period January through December 2022 include: Iraq, Iran, Central Asia, northwest Africa, Chile, and Texas and the U.S. West. Areas of significant water surplus include: eastern Australia, China, India, and Indonesia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 5 April 2022.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period December 2021 through November 2022 include: Portugal, Spain, northwest Africa, Chile, and Texas (U.S). Areas of significant water surplus include: eastern Australia, China, India, and Indonesia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 4 March 2022.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period November 2021 through October 2022 include: Chile, Texas (U.S), North Africa, Portugal, and Spain. Areas of significant water surplus include: China, India, Southeast Asia, and eastern Australia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 7 February 2022.
The forecast through October indicates moderate to exceptional water deficits in a vast stretch of eastern Australia from Rockhampton, Queensland reaching south to Melbourne. Intense deficits are forecast in pockets of Tasmania, the southwestern tip of Western Australia, Northern Territory’s Top End, and New Caledonia.
The forecast through July indicates that widespread, exceptional water deficits will shrink considerably. Severe to exceptional deficits are, however, forecast in northern Australia from the Kimberly region through Top End, Northern Territory and along the southern shore of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Deficits will also be intense in the southern tip of Western Australia, Tasmania, New Caledonia, and North Island, New Zealand.
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