ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST APRIL 2022

15 April 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in January 2022 and running through December 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List April 15, 2022(pdf).

United States: The forecast through June indicates widespread water deficits in the West, Southwest, and Texas with exceptional deficits, particularly in Texas and New Mexico. Deficits are also forecast in Virginia and the Carolinas, and surpluses from the Dakotas into Minnesota.

Canada: The forecast through June indicates that although water deficits will shrink somewhat, vast areas will persist nationwide. Near-normal conditions are forecast in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces. Surpluses will increase in southern British Columbia and the Rockies in southern Alberta.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through June indicates widespread water deficits across northern Mexico and in some eastern states, with pockets of intense deficit in the north. Surpluses are expected in Central America.

South America: The forecast through June indicates widespread water deficits in central Brazil, exceptional in Tocantins. Surpluses are forecast in the central Amazon Basin of Brazil and in Colombia. Deficits will linger in northern Argentina, the Pampas, and Chile.

Europe: The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will downgrade on the Iberian Peninsula but increase in Central and Eastern Europe and the Balkans. Deficits will be widespread in France and southern Ukraine. Intense deficits will persist in Estonia.

Africa: The forecast through June indicates widespread water deficits across North Africa with large areas of exceptional deficit, but deficits in the Horn will shrink and downgrade. Areas of surplus include Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Zambia.

Middle East: The forecast through June indicates widespread water deficits in the region with exceptional deficits in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, and pockets of Iran and Turkey. Areas of surplus include Iran’s central Zagros Mountains and near Lake Tuz in Turkey.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through June indicates widespread water surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain into the Yenisei River Watershed and in the eastern Volga River region. Exceptional deficits will emerge from Mangystau, Kazakhstan into Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

South Asia: The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will shrink in the south but persist in many regions of India. Deficits are forecast in the Far Northeast, Punjab, and Rajasthan. Afghanistan can expect intense surpluses around Kandahar and deficits south of Herat and near Mazar-e Sharif.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will downgrade in Southeast Asia but remain widespread, increase in the Philippines and New Guinea, and shrink in Indonesia. Deficits will emerge in Sumatra.

East Asia: The forecast through June indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in Northeast China and the Yellow River Basin. Surpluses will retreat from the Lower and Middle Yangtze River Basin but emerge in Yunnan. Intense deficits will emerge in Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Hunan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through June indicates that while downgrading, water surpluses will remain widespread in eastern Australia from Rockhampton, Queensland through East Gippsland, Victoria. Deficits are forecast in Tasmania and in South Island, New Zealand.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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