Africa: Widespread water deficits across N Africa

19 April 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December indicates widespread water deficits throughout the northwest from Mauritania through Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia well into Libya and will include many areas of exceptional deficit. Mixed conditions are expected elsewhere in Libya and in Egypt.

Surpluses are forecast in the central and eastern Sahel, dipping south well into Nigeria and through South Sudan. Anomalies will be exceptional around Lake Débo in the Inner Niger Delta of central Mali; in central Nigeria surrounding the capital, Abuja; and near the city of Kano in northern Nigeria. Surpluses are forecast along the Nile and Atbara Rivers in Sudan and will be widespread in southern Sudan and South Sudan, and northern Uganda. Anomalies will extend into Eritrea and the Tigray and Afar regions of northern Ethiopia, while transitions (pink/purple) are expected in the Ethiopian Highlands.

In the Horn of Africa, intense deficits are forecast in Somaliland and a pocket south of the Genale River in southern Ethiopia, and moderate to severe deficits in southern Somalia. Transitional conditions along with exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Nugaal Valley.

Along the Gulf of Guinea, deficits will be widespread through Cameroon, becoming exceptional in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon. In the heart of the continent, severe deficits are forecast in the Tshuapa River region of the Congo Basin in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Surpluses are expected in Brazzaville and Kinshasa in the west, along the Lukuga River in eastern DRC near Lake Tanganyika, and in the southeast.

Widespread surpluses are expected in Tanzania, exceptional in the west and south. Surpluses of generally lesser intensity are forecast for Zambia, Malawi, and central Mozambique. Deficits are predicted north of Harare in Zimbabwe, and in southeastern Botswana, southeastern Mozambique, southwestern Madagascar, Eswatini and nearby regions in South Africa. Anomalies will be intense near Harare. In Angola, moderate deficits are forecast in the northwest and central east.

Many pockets of surpluses are forecast in South Africa particularly in Northern Cape and Eastern Cape and into Lesotho. A pocket of intense surplus is forecast in northern Madagascar and a moderate pocket around Fianarantsoa in the south.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through June indicates widespread deficits across North Africa with large areas of exceptional deficit, surpluses in coastal Libya, and transitional conditions in parts of Egypt. Intense surpluses will persist in north-central Nigeria and surpluses are forecast from southeastern Sudan into Ethiopia and western Eritrea as deficits in the Horn shrink and downgrade. A pocket of exceptional deficit will emerge in southern Somalia. Deficits will retreat from Cameroon and downgrade in its southern neighbors. Some pockets of deficit are expected in central DRC, southern Uganda, and Kenya. Surpluses are forecast for Tanzania, Zambia, and southeastern DRC, and will increase in Angola around Huambo. Surpluses elsewhere include central Mozambique, northern Madagascar, Lesotho, Eastern Cape and pockets in Western and Northern Cape, South Africa. Moderate deficits are forecast for Eswatini and nearby regions in South Africa, and deficits will persist in southwestern Madagascar.

The forecast for July through September indicates exceptional deficits in northern Morocco and Algeria while deficits elsewhere in the north downgrade. Deficits in Gabon will become exceptional, and deficits will emerge in southern Liberia and from coastal Côte d'Ivoire into Ghana. Surpluses are expected in a belt from Burkina Faso through Eritrea, becoming widespread in southern Sudan, South Sudan, and western Ethiopia. Surpluses will emerge from northern Uganda into Kenya; persist in Tanzania, Zambia, southern DRC, central Mozambique, and Huambo, Angola; and linger in northern Madagascar, Lesotho, and pockets in South Africa.

In the final quarter – October through December – deficits are forecast from Mauritania into southern Libya, and surpluses will persist from Burkina Faso into Ethiopia and through Uganda.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A national state of disaster has been declared in South Africa after torrential rainfall in early April caused flooding and landslides that led to the death of at least 443 people. In a 24-hour period over 300mm (11.8 inches) of rainfall deluged the province of KwaZulu-Natal, destroying homes and schools, damaging roads and infrastructure, and displacing 40,000 people. Several rivers overflowed, including the Amanzimtoti, Umbilo, and Umgeni, swallowing riverside communities. The federal government has deployed 10,000 troops to aid in transport and clean-up and has provided one billion rand (US $68million) in emergency relief. Some areas in the municipality that includes Durban, the nation’s third most populous city, remained without power and water as of 18 April.

Drought in Morocco could reduce the cereal harvest by more than half warns the nation’s agricultural minister. The drought has contributed to a massive bee die-off, a “colony collapse disorder,” in Moroccan hives. Death of the critical pollinators prompted the government to release 130 million dirhams (US $13 million), to support beekeepers. The world’s oldest and largest collective beehive is in the Moroccan village of Inzerki.

Ethiopia reports nearly 1.5 million livestock deaths attributed to drought in eastern and southern regions. Surviving animals are underweight and their reduced market value has in turn negatively impacted household purchasing power. The search for water and pasture has led 286,000 Ethiopians to migrate.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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