Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook April 2022

7 April 2022

OVERVIEW
Exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures are indicated in the April 2022 Outlook for many regions in the Middle East, Central and South Asia, Siberia, and the Yellow (Huang He) and Yangtze River Basins in China. In Central Asia and parts of the Middle East, conditions will also be drier than normal.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Central Asia can expect precipitation deficits, moderate in Kazakhstan’s southern half but widespread and more intense in the smaller neighboring nations. Deficits will be extreme in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and moderate to severe in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In Russia, however, a vast belt of surplus is forecast stretching across the breadth of the country from Belarus nearly to the Sea of Japan. Surpluses will be exceptional northeast of Lake Baikal and severe to extreme in several regions including Trans Volga and the Middle and Upper Yenisei River Watershed.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Wetter than normal conditions are forecast in Eastern Europe with moderate to extreme surpluses across northern Ukraine, and moderate to severe surpluses in Belarus and at the intersection of Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, Romania, and Ukraine.

Drier than normal conditions of varying intensity are forecast throughout the Middle East. Precipitation deficits will be exceptional in a pocket north of Mosul, Iraq, and from Lebanon into Israel and Syria. Severe to extreme deficits are expected in Iran’s northern half; severe deficits in eastern Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan; and moderate to severe deficits in Saudi Arabia. Remaining areas in the Middle East will be mildly to moderately drier than normal.

Moderate precipitation deficits are forecast in pockets of North Africa including northern Morocco and Algeria, pockets of Tunisia, near Benghazi in Libya, and northern Egypt. Moderate deficits are also forecast in the Horn from Eritrea into northern Ethiopia and Somaliland. Deficits will reach severe intensity in south-central Ethiopia, moderating as they reach into southern Somalia and eastern Kenya. Conditions will be drier than normal west of Lake Victoria in southern Uganda and in Tanzania’s northwestern corner, and some moderate pockets are expected near the city of Arusha in northern Tanzania and in the Luwegu and Rufiji River region in the southeast. Precipitation surpluses ranging from moderate to severe are predicted for Zambia and nearby regions in Angola and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Moderate surpluses are forecast southwest of Durban, South Africa. Deficits will follow Madagascar’s southeastern coast.

In South Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan will be drier than normal with extreme to exceptional deficits in Afghanistan’s northern half. Small pockets of moderate precipitation deficit are expected throughout India but the extent of deficit will be greater in eastern states near the Bay of Bengal, particularly Odisha. Deficits are also expected in southern Assam in India’s Far Northeast.

Widespread precipitation deficits are forecast in China in the Yellow (Huang He) and much of the Yangtze and Pearl River Watersheds. Deficits will be especially intense - severe to exceptional - in Fujian, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi including around Poyang Lake. Intense deficits are also predicted from eastern Sichuan into Chongqing including the Yangtze Gorges. The northern half of Qinghai and western Xinjiang Uygur will be drier than normal. Widespread precipitation surpluses are forecast in Tibet (Xizang), western Sichuan, and Yunnan and surpluses will be exceptional spanning the Sichuan/Tibet border. Hainan will be moderately wetter. Elsewhere in East Asia, Japan can expect drier than normal conditions in Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu with severe to extreme deficits in central Honshu.

In Southeast Asia and the Pacific region, some moderate deficits are forecast in northern Myanmar and moderate surpluses in the southeast leading into Thailand. Surpluses are expected in the Malay Peninsula and central and southern Vietnam and will include exceptional anomalies in Vietnam’s central region spreading from Da Nang. The Philippines will be much wetter than normal. Other areas with a forecast of precipitation surplus include northern Sumatra and its central east coast, northeastern Borneo, and pockets in the New Guinea Highlands.

Precipitation in Australia and New Zealand will be relatively normal. East Gippsland in Victoria will be moderately wetter than normal and western Tasmania will be moderately drier.

In South America, central and eastern Brazil are expected to be moderately drier than normal with a few pockets of severe deficit. Severe deficits are also forecast in the northeast corner of Amazonas. Surpluses are forecast in Amapá, western Acre, the Madeira River Watershed in Amazonas, and the nation’s coastal southeast. Elsewhere on the continent, surpluses of varying intensity are predicted in French Guiana, pockets in western Venezuela, northern Colombia, central Ecuador, and northeastern Peru. Precipitation deficits are expected in the southern Cordillera Occidental in Peru, southwestern Bolivia into Argentina, the eastern Pampas, central Chile, and southern Uruguay. Deficits will be extreme in Bolivia and severe in southeastern Buenos Aires Province.

Central America can expect precipitation surpluses reaching extreme to exceptional intensity in coastal regions. Pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in northern Mexico and northern states along the Gulf of Mexico.

The United States will be drier than normal in a broad area from central California through Nevada, southern Utah and southwestern Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and western, central, and southern Texas. Deficits will be severe in central California and from central Arizona to the Rio Grande in New Mexico. In the northern U.S., moderate surpluses are forecast in North Dakota on either side of the Missouri River from Lake Oahe, and in Washington State’s northwestern corner. In Alaska, severe to extreme deficits are forecast between the Porcupine and Yukon Rivers in the east.

Much of provincial Canada will see relatively normal precipitation. Moderate surpluses are forecast from west-central Saskatchewan into Alberta in the Beaver River region, and in southern British Columbia and the province’s north near Williston Lake. Northwest Territories and Yukon will be drier than normal.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Central Asia can expect to be much warmer than normal with exceptionally hotter temperatures dominant, continuing into Russia to form a vast path through Siberia. Anomalies will downgrade but will be severe as they reach east to the Sea of Okhotsk and will remain widespread. Russia’s Far East will be moderately warmer than normal. Moderate anomalies are also forecast from the Gulf of Ob in the north through the southern Ural Mountains and into the eastern Volga and Don River regions in European Russia. Anomalies will be intense in the Caucasus.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

South Asia, too, will be warmer than normal. Exceptionally hotter temperatures are forecast throughout much of Afghanistan, Pakistan’s northern half, and northern, western, and central India. Anomalies of lesser intensity are expected in southern India, the Gangetic Plain, and western Nepal. India’s Far Northeast will be extremely hotter than normal.

Many regions of China will be warmer than normal. Anomalies will be exceptional in much of the Yellow (Huang He) and Yangtze River Basins, and severe throughout the nation’s vast northeast. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in the west including exceptionally hotter temperatures along the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River in Tibet (Xizang), and in northern Xinjiang Uygur region. Elsewhere in East Asia, Mongolia will be severely to extremely hotter than normal. Severe warm anomalies are expected in North Korea, and extreme to exceptional anomalies in South Korea and throughout Japan. In southern China’s Yunnan Province, conditions will be moderately cooler in the province’s eastern half as well as in Hainan off China’s southern coast.

These somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will reach into Southeast Asia in northern Vietnam, Vietnam’s narrow mid-section, and central Laos. Myanmar will be warmer than normal, exceptionally hotter in the nation’s west and south. Warm anomalies will skirt the coast of the Gulf of Thailand. In the Pacific region, warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected in Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and the central and southern Philippines. Anomalies will be exceptional in many areas including the central Philippines, the Lesser Sunda Islands, Sulawesi, and Papua, Indonesia. A cool pocket is forecast at the tip of Luzon, Philippines.

Australia’s northern reaches can expect warmer than normal temperatures with moderate to exceptional anomalies from Top End, Northern Territory, around the Gulf of Carpentaria, through Far North Queensland, and along Queensland’s coast to Brisbane. Eighty Mile Beach in Western Australia will see severe warm anomalies and moderately warmer temperatures are forecast in the nation’s southwestern tip. Much of Victoria will be moderately warmer as well but extreme to exceptional anomalies are expected in Tasmania. New Zealand can expect severe to extreme warm anomalies overall and New Caledonia will be exceptionally hotter.

Temperatures will be relatively normal in much of Europe, but moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast from Moldova through Greece, and some moderate pockets in southern Norway, Ireland, the western Iberian Peninsula, southwestern France, and Malta. Arctic Norway will be moderately cooler than normal as will the northern Apennines in Italy.

Nearly all of the Middle East will be warmer than normal. Exceptionally hotter conditions are forecast in the Levant, Saudi Arabia’s northern half, Iraq, eastern Turkey, much of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, and throughout Iran. Anomalies will be severe to extreme in western Turkey, and extreme in much of Yemen and in western Oman.

North Africa and the Sahel will see widespread warmer than normal temperatures. Anomalies will be exceptional in Egypt, northern Sudan, and from southern Algeria into Niger. Warm anomalies are expected in the Horn of Africa in Eritrea, Somaliland, Somalia, and Ethiopia and will include extreme to exceptional anomalies. Warm anomalies in central Africa will be moderate to severe from Cameroon and its smaller southern neighbors through northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. Severe to extreme anomalies are forecast for southern Kenya. Some moderately cooler than normal pockets are predicted for DRC’s central south, Angola’s western provinces, northwestern Namibia, and southwestern Zambia. Severe to extreme warm anomalies are forecast for South Africa’s northern provinces, severe anomalies for Swaziland, and southern Mozambique, and generally moderate anomalies in southern Zimbabwe, southeastern Botswana into Northern Cape, and Lesotho. Anomalies of varying intensity are expected in Madagascar.

In South America, Brazil’s eastern half will be much warmer than normal with a vast expanse of exceptionally hotter conditions from Maranhão in the north into São Paulo State in the south. In northern Amazonas, anomalies will be moderate to severe reaching well into southern Venezuela. Temperatures will be moderately warmer than normal along Venezuela’s Caribbean Coast, through the Andes in Columbia and Ecuador, and southern Colombia into Peru. Warmer conditions are also expected through the Peruvian Andes and will reach severe to exceptional intensity in Huánuco Region and Ayacuho Department. Temperatures will be somewhat warmer than normal in a pocket around Sucre, Bolivia, and pockets of northern Chile. Areas with a forecast of cooler than normal conditions - generally moderate anomalies - include the Chaco region in northern Argentina and western Paraguay leading north into Bolivia; La Rioja Province in Argentina; and northern Patagonia.

Central America will see relatively normal temperatures with some moderate to severe warm anomalies in Guatemala. In the Caribbean, the Bahamas will be exceptionally hotter than normal as will Jamaica. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for Cuba, Hispaniola, and the smaller island nations. Conditions in northern and central Mexico will be moderately to extremely warmer than normal. Moderate to severe anomalies are expected in the south from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the Gulf of Mexico, and moderate anomalies in the Yucatan.

Warm anomalies in northern Mexico will reach well into the United States in West Texas, the Southwest, southern Rockies, and SoCal. Anomalies will be especially widespread - severe to extreme - in New Mexico. Florida, too, will be warmer than normal in its southern half, and Puerto Rico can expect severe warm anomalies. Hawaii will be much warmer than normal as will most of Alaska. The remainder of the U.S. will see relatively normal temperatures.

Likewise, temperatures in the southern regions of provincial Canada will be normal overall. The bulk of northern Quebec and Labrador will see moderate to severe warm anomalies. Elsewhere in the east, moderately warmer conditions are forecast for the Gaspé Peninsula, northern New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. Moderate anomalies are also predicted in northern areas of the remaining provinces and in the territories, but anomalies will be more intense in north-central British Columbia leading through central Yukon, and in Arctic regions.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released April 2, 2022 which includes forecasts for April 2022 through December 2022 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued March 25 through March 31, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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