ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List March 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST MARCH 2022

15 March 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in December 2021 and running through November 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List March 15, 2022 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through May indicates widespread, intense water deficits in Texas, the Southwest, and Florida, and deficits in the Central Plains, California, Gulf Coast, and South Atlantic. Surpluses are forecast on the border of Minnesota and the Dakotas, and in the Ohio River Watershed.

Canada: The forecast through May indicates that water deficits in Quebec will shrink somewhat, but vast areas of intense deficit will persist in Canada’s eastern half. Near-normal conditions are forecast in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces. Surpluses will increase in southern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through May indicates the emergence of widespread, exceptional water deficits in northern Mexico and near the Pacific Coast through Jalisco. Surpluses are forecast in Central America and the Caribbean.

South America: The forecast through May indicates widespread water surpluses in the northern Amazon Basin, Guianas, southern and eastern Venezuela, and several regions in Colombia. Intense deficits are expected in Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, and Paraná, Brazil.

Europe: The forecast through May indicates many areas of water deficit from the Iberian Peninsula through Ukraine and widespread surpluses in Northern Europe. Deficits will be intense in Portugal, Spain, France, Hungary, eastern Czech Republic, and Estonia.

Africa: The forecast through May indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions across the north. Surpluses are expected in central Nigeria where anomalies will be exceptional, throughout much of Tanzania, and in southeastern Sudan.

Middle East: The forecast through May indicates widespread water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and deficits in southern Iraq and central and southeastern Iran. Areas with a forecast of surplus include Iran’s Caspian Coast and the Kizilirmak River Basin in northern Turkey.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through May indicates widespread water surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain into the Yenisei River Watershed. Deficits in the Volga region will transition to surplus, and deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau will shrink.

South Asia: The forecast through May indicates the emergence of widespread, exceptional water deficits in western and central India and severe deficits in the Far Northeast. Areas with a forecast of surplus include southern India, Nepal, and western Bangladesh.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through May indicates that widespread, intense water surpluses will persist in Southeast Asia, but surpluses in Indonesia and Pacific regions will shrink and downgrade.

East Asia: The forecast through May indicates persistent, intense water surpluses from Northeast China through the North China Plain and much of the Yellow River Basin. Areas with a forecast of deficit include Shanghai to Three Gorges Dam, South Korea, and southern Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through May indicates that, while shrinking and downgrading, water surpluses will remain widespread in eastern Australia from Bundaberg on Queensland’s coast through the Murray-Darling Basin and coastal regions into Victoria.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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