Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook March 2022

3 March 2022

OVERVIEW
Much wetter than normal conditions are indicated in the March 2022 Outlook for the eastern Amazon Basin and the Guianas. Nearly all of Russia will be warmer than normal and the vast expanse of the Russian Far East will be exceptionally hotter.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In South America, precipitation surpluses are expected in the eastern Amazon River Basin of Brazil. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in northern Pará State and will reach into the Guianas and southern Venezuela. In the eastern Orinoco River Basin of Venezuela, surpluses will be extreme as will surpluses in the Upper Apure River region in the west. Northern and eastern Colombia can expect precipitation surpluses of generally lesser intensity.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

The forecast indicates drier than normal conditions in the Andes from Cali, Columbia through central Peru and will include extreme precipitation deficits. Some surplus pockets are predicted in the Middle Ucayali River region of Peru and near Cusco. Argentina’s northwestern provinces will be drier than normal near the Chilean border and into the Atacama Desert. Deficits are also forecast in Mendoza Province, Argentina and parts of the Pampas. The Southern Patagonia Ice Field will be somewhat wetter than normal.

Relatively normal precipitation is forecast in the Caribbean. Pockets of surplus are expected in Central America in Belize, southern Guatemala, El Salvador eastern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

Northwestern Mexico will be moderately drier than normal and moderate deficits will follow the Gulf Coast from Tamaulipas into Veracruz and land-locked neighbor, San Luis Potosí where deficits will become severe. Scattered, small pockets of surplus are forecast near the Pacific Coast in southern states.

The southwestern United States will be somewhat drier than normal with moderate deficits from Southern California through Arizona and New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Deficits will be severe in a few places including between Albuquerque and Santa Fe. Widespread surpluses are forecast across much of the breadth of the northern U.S. from the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region. Surpluses will be moderate overall but severe in Idaho and into nearby northern regions. Some moderate surpluses are also expected in pockets of New England. In Alaska, deficits are forecast from Anchorage into the Panhandle.

Moderate surpluses will spill across the border into Canada in southeastern British Columbia, the Prairie Provinces, and Southern Ontario. Labrador will be somewhat drier than normal, as will central Yukon at the opposite end of the nation.

Much of Europe can expect moderate precipitation deficits reaching from the western Iberian Peninsula through Central and Eastern Europe and the Balkans. Deficits will be severe in some areas, particularly southern Germany. Moderate surpluses are forecast in the Hebrides, Norway, northern Sweden, and northern Finland into Murmansk, Russia though surpluses will become severe spanning the Finnish-Russian border.

Deficits in Spain will reach across the Strait of Gibraltar into the tip of Morocco in Africa. Surpluses are expected along the Moroccan border near Algeria, in central Algeria, and near Cairo, Egypt. Central Africa will be drier than normal from Cameroon through Central African Republic (CAR), and into northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), South Sudan, and Uganda. Deficits will be severe to extreme in CAR and DRC. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Ethiopia and moderate deficits in Eritrea, pockets of northern Kenya, and northwestern Tanzania. Pockets of moderate surplus are predicted for eastern Tanzania. In southern Africa, western Zambia will be moderately drier than normal, with pockets in neighboring nations and in northwestern Madagascar.

In the Middle East, some moderate precipitation deficits are forecast on the Arabian Peninsula, becoming severe in pockets of western Saudi Arabia. Moderate deficits are also forecast for southeastern Iran. Western Turkey will be drier than normal with moderate to severe deficits reaching extreme intensity in a small pocket near the city of Izmir. Moderate surpluses are expected in northeastern Turkey and central Syria.

Relatively normal precipitation is predicted for the nations of Central Asia with some areas of surplus in eastern Kyrgyzstan. In Russia, moderate surpluses are forecast in a vast belt from the Middle Ob River region through the Central Siberian Plateau and the Russian Far East.

In South Asia, moderate precipitation deficits will stretch across the breadth of central India and are also expected in pockets of the Far Northeast, and pockets in Nepal, Bangladesh, and southwestern Pakistan. Northern Sri Lanka will be wetter than normal.

Precipitation in East Asia will be relatively normal overall. Moderate deficits are forecast in western Yunnan, China and in Sichuan’s northwest corner, but deficits will be more intense in a pocket of eastern Tibet (Xizang). Surpluses, generally moderate, are forecast spanning the northern border of Tibet into Xinjiang Uygur and also in central Guizhou.

Myanmar can expect pockets of moderate deficit in its northern half but the remaining nations of Southeast Asia will be moderately wetter than normal overall with severe surpluses in southern Vietnam, the Malay Peninsula, and pockets elsewhere. In the Pacific region, surpluses are forecast for the Philippines, northeastern Borneo, along Sumatra’s east coast, and throughout the New Guinea Highlands.

Southeastern Australia will be moderately wetter than normal in eastern New South Wales and in Victoria. Surpluses will reach across the Bass Strait into northeastern Tasmania. Western Australia can also expect surpluses from the Nullarbor Plain north through the Great Victorian Desert, the western edge of the Gibson Desert and reaching the northwestern coast near Eighty Mile Beach. Deficits are forecast across northern Australia from the Ord River in the Kimberley, Western Australia through the northern half of Northwest Territory and pockets in northern Queensland as far east as the coastal city of Townsville. Deficits will be moderate overall but severe in Top End, Northern Territory from the Upper Daly River region through the Roper River watershed and into the Barkly Tableland. New Zealand and New Caledonia can expect relatively normal precipitation.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
As is apparent on the Temperature Map below, above-normal temperatures are forecast for nearly all of Russia with extreme to exceptional anomalies in the Far East and moderate to severe anomalies elsewhere. Warmer than normal conditions will reach south through Kazakhstan in Central Asia, with severe to extreme anomalies blanketing the nation’s northern half, moderating as they reach south. Central Uzbekistan will be moderately warmer than normal as will southern Kyrgyzstan. Central Tajikistan can also expect moderate warm anomalies but severe anomalies are forecast for its eastern third.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In South Asia, most of India outside of the Gangetic Plain will be warmer than normal with severe anomalies overall. Temperatures will be exceptionally hotter in Gujarat; extreme to exceptional anomalies are forecast in Odisha and northeastern Andhra Pradesh on the Bay of Bengal; and severe to extreme anomalies in nearby Chhattisgarh. Tamil Nadu and Kerala can also expect severe to extreme anomalies, and severe anomalies are forecast for India’s Far Northeast. In the Gangetic Plain, a cooler than normal pocket is expected in northeastern Uttar Pradesh. Sri Lanka will be moderately warmer than normal as will pockets of Bangladesh, and Afghan provinces west and south of Kabul. Warm anomalies of greater intensity are predicted in southern Pakistan and north-central Nepal.

Much of East Asia will be warmer than normal. Taiwan, Korea, and most of Japan will be moderately warmer but severe anomalies are forecast in Hokkaido. Mongolia can expect moderate to severe warm anomalies including severe anomalies in Ulaanbaatar and across the north. Much of China outside of northern Tibet will be warmer than normal with moderate anomalies overall and many pockets of severe anomalies. Northeast China will be much hotter than normal with anomalies reaching extreme to exceptional intensity in Heilongjiang. Along the East China Sea, Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang can expect severe anomalies that will become exceptional along the coast.

Throughout most of Southeast Asia and the Pacific, temperatures will be warmer than normal with widespread severe to exceptional anomalies in Myanmar, western Thailand, Philippines, Borneo, Indonesia, Timor-Leste, and New Guinea. Northern Vietnam stands out with a forecast of normal temperatures, while moderate anomalies are expected in the south, and moderate to severe anomalies in Cambodia and southern Laos.

Australia’s northern half can expect a blanket of hotter than normal conditions including widespread exceptional anomalies in Northern Territory, particularly Top End. The tip of the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland will be exceptionally hotter with anomalies tracing the east coast all the way to Brisbane. Tasmania will be much warmer than normal, exceptionally hotter in its southeast quadrant and extremely hotter in Hobart. In New Zealand, South Island’s northern half will be somewhat warmer than the norm but the southern half can expect severe to exceptional anomalies. Likewise, New Caledonia will be much hotter than normal.

The Nordic nations of Europe can expect severe heat anomalies overall with large pockets even more intense. Severe anomalies will reach into Estonia, Latvia, and European Russia to Lake Onega before moderating and then becoming severe again around the Rybinsk Reservoir and through the Vychegda Lowland. As previously mentioned, the remainder of Russia will be much hotter than normal. Lithuania, Belarus, and northern Ukraine will be moderately warmer than normal. Moderate warm anomalies will be widespread in Ireland, the U.K., the western half of the Iberian Peninsula, France, Belgium, Netherlands, and parts of Germany. In Switzerland, however, the forecast indicates severe warm anomalies, extending through the western Alps into its neighbors, France and Italy. Somewhat cooler than normal temperatures are forecast in a pocket of central Italy and in southern Greece.

Turkey, too, will be moderately cooler than normal, and similar anomalies are expected in a few other places in the Middle East, like northeastern Iraq (including Kirkuk and Mosul) and eastern Georgia. Southern Iran will be moderately warmer as will southwestern Saudi Arabia, but more intense heat anomalies are forecast in Yemen, particularly in the west.

In Africa, widespread warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in West Africa from southern Mauritania and Gambia around the Gulf of Guinea, reaching well into land-locked nations and into the vast Congo Basin in Central Africa. Anomalies will be severe to exceptional. In the Horn of Africa, warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somaliland, and Somalia. Nearby, South Sudan will be moderately warmer than normal, moderate to extreme warm anomalies are forecast in Uganda, and anomalies of varying intensity in Rwanda, Burundi, and western and southern Kenya. Moderately warmer temperatures are forecast in many nations of southern Africa including Madagascar. Anomalies will be more intense in some pockets, particularly southwestern Angola and northern Madagascar.

Brazil will be warmer than the norm with exceptionally hotter temperatures dominating much of its eastern half. Intense warm anomalies will reach north into French Guiana, moderating across the border in Suriname. Elsewhere in South America, the eastern Orinoco Watershed in Venezuela is forecast to be cooler than normal. Cool anomalies are also forecast for Colombia’s northern corner and along the continent’s Pacific Coast from southern Ecuador almost to Lima, Peru. Coastal anomalies will be intense. Northern Peru will be moderately warmer than normal but severe anomalies will follow the Cordillera Oriental Mountains down the middle of the nation. Heat anomalies in western Bolivia will be moderate to severe and will intensify, becoming extreme, in northwestern Argentina near the Chilean border. A few pockets of moderate cool anomalies are forecast in northern Argentina in the Chaco Austral and northern Pampas.

Relatively normal temperatures are forecast in Central America with some severe warm anomalies in southern Guatemala. In the Caribbean, however, exceptionally hotter than normal conditions are expected in Jamaica and the Bahamas, severe to exceptional anomalies in Cuba, and moderate anomalies in Haiti.

Warmer than normal temperatures will be widespread in northern and western Mexico and anomalies will be intense in many regions including a vast path of exceptional anomalies from Coahuila through Jalisco. In southern Mexico, Chiapas and Tabasco will be warmer than the norm with moderate to severe anomalies.

With the exception of the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest, much of the United States will be warmer than normal. The Deep South and South Atlantic States will be much warmer with anomalies ranging from severe in southern Louisiana and Mississippi to exceptional in Florida. The Ohio River Basin will be moderately warmer than normal with similar conditions reaching into New England as far as southern Maine, though coastal areas of the Northeast can expect severe warm anomalies. The Central Plains states, Middle Mississippi states, and the eastern half of Texas will also be moderately warmer. From the Southern Rockies of Colorado through New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas, anomalies will be severe. Anomalies of generally moderate intensity are expected in western Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, and California south of Fresno. Exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures are forecast in Hawaii, severe to extreme warm anomalies in Puerto Rico, and moderately warmer conditions in western Alaska, becoming intense on the north coast including Barrow.

Canada will be moderately warmer than normal in southern Nova Scotia and a vast path from Northern Ontario leading through northern Manitoba and into Nunavut where anomalies will intensify in the far north. Moderate warm anomalies are forecast in northern Yukon and Northwest Territories.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released March 2, 2022 which includes forecasts for March 2022 through November 2022 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued February 22 through February 28, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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