Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus continues in Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia

Template Southeast asia and the pacific: Surplus continues in Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia

27 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 anticipates severe to exceptional surplus to continue in various parts of Malaysia, as well as Laos and Cambodia. Deficits are expected to persist in Sumatra, but downgrade in intensity.  

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Peninsular Malaysia, throughout the states of Perak and Kelantan. 

  • Indonesia, with concentrations in northwestern Kalimantan and western Borneo.

  • Papua, in regions near the Tolikara Regency.

  • Southern Laos, within the Salavan Province.

  • Western Cambodia, near Tonle Sap. 

Severe to extreme deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Indonesia, in central to southern areas of Sumatra. Similarly intense deficits are expected in pockets across Sulawesi and the Mentawai Islands Regency.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 anticipates severe to exceptional surpluses to persist in western Thailand, continuing south and covering much of Peninsular Malaysia. Similarly intense surpluses are expected in northern and eastern Thailand, which continue into southern Laos and western Cambodia. In Maritime Southeast Asia, deficits are anticipated in southern Sumatra, throughout Java, and the Lesser Sunda Islands. 

From March through May 2024, much of Mainland and Maritime Southeast Asia will experience near-normal conditions. However, northwestern Kalimantan and western Borneo will experience persisting severe to exceptional surplus.

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – anticipates near-normal conditions throughout much of the area. Some moderate surpluses are expected in Maritime Southeast Asia, mostly in western Java and Borneo.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In southern Thailand, tens of thousands of residents have been affected by intense flooding, which has submerged roads and forced school closures, and trapped some citizens inside their homes. The province of Narathiwat was most seriously affected, with some districts reportedly submerged for days. Many people were reportedly in need of assistance, as some were seen sitting on the roofs of their flooded homes. Over twelve schools in the Narathiwat and Yala provinces were forced to close, while footage captured in the region showed homes and shops still inundated with water.

As of December 25th, over 9,900 Malaysians were displaced due to flooding. According to Malaysia’s Social Welfare Department, the displaced are being housed in 121 flood relief centers in four states.Officials reported three children’s deaths due to conditions worsened by floods. According to Malaysia’s Meteorological Department, the country is experiencing the Northeast monsoon, which typically lasts from October to March.

Torrential rain in the Indonesian island of Sumatra caused flash floods and a landslide earlier this month. The landslide reached a river that burst its banks, which hit nearby villages. The village hit worst was Simangualmpe, near Lake Toba in the North Sumatra province. Several people were buried and houses were severely damaged by the landslide. Residents stated that rescue efforts were hindered by blocked roads, with at least 12 people still missing as of December 2nd.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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