Central Asia & Russia: Deficits endure in W, SE Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits endure in W, SE Russia

27 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits in western and southeastern Russia to endure, but decrease significantly in size. Pockets of exceptional surplus are expected to linger in areas of northern Russia, but can expect to remain isolated in areas near the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northern Russia, throughout northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Western Russia, in central regions of the Western Siberian Plain. 

  • Southeastern Russia, throughout central, southern, and eastern regions of the Irkutsk Oblast. These deficits are expected to continue north into southernmost regions of the Sakha Republic. 

  • Central regions of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Northern Russia, in southern regions of the Anabarsky and Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky districts. 

  • Northern and eastern Kazakhstan, appearing throughout the North Kazakhstan and Pavlodar regions, as well as throughout the Kurshim District. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 anticipates that widespread, intense deficits in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug are expected to continue, which move further east into southern regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai and across southern Siberia, passing through regions near the cities of Novosibirsk and Krasnoyarsh. Central regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District are expected to observe exceptional surplus, which continues southeast into regions near the city of Bratsk. In eastern Kazakhstan, exceptional surplus is expected to be widespread, throughout the Kurshim District and continuing south further into the  Almaty and Jambyl regions. These surpluses will continue further south into northern regions of Kyrgyzstan. 

From March through May 2024, intense deficits are expected to persist in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, which continue east into southern Krasnoyarsk Krai and western to central regions of the Irkutsk Oblast. Similar deficits are expected in southern regions of the Sakha Republic, east of Lake Baikal. Central regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District can expect severe to exceptional surplus, as well as regions further southeast, in the Olenyoksky District. Northern Kazakhstan can expect similarly intense surpluses. In northern Russia, deficits in northern coastal regions of Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District are expected to continue. 

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – indicates that most intense anomalies will disappear from the region. However, severe to extreme surplus is expected to continue in northern Kazakhstan and northern regions of the Sakha Republic, as are deficits in northern coastal regions of Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
According to experts, Central Asia is expected to endure constant, widespread water shortages in the next 5 to 10 years. These impending water shortages threaten both energy and food supplies of the region. System analyst Baktybek Saipbaev spoke about the depletion of glaciers throughout Central Asia, and that the threats posed to the region are being exacerbated by climate change. Saipbaev warned that emergency measures were needed quickly in order to prevent an environmental disaster that could turn Central Asia into a “lifeless space.” 

In Kazakhstan, 2.7 billion tenge was distributed to farmers in the Zhambyl region, whose crops were damaged due to lack of water. Officials stated that “Compensation was paid based on the documents provided and an analysis of the affected facilities by a special commission. In total, more than nine thousand hectares of cultivated areas were damaged due to the emergency. Of the total amount of 3.7 billion tenge, 890 million were returned to the state.” Over 30 farmers lost compensation, some as a result of not providing the necessary documentation, while others refused assistance. 

Throughout last fall and the beginning of winter, Kyrgyzstan observed abnormally warm temperatures, raising concern from experts about the impact of climate change in the region. Kanat Abdrakhmatov, President of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic, stated that according to data from the Institute of Geology of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic, climate change is changing both the duration and onset of seasons in the country. “The duration of winter, according to the Bishkek weather station, decreased from 95 to 71 days, spring increased slightly, by 3 days. Summer has increased from 145 to 154 days. The duration of autumn in the period from 1931 to 1960 was 59 days, and from 1961 to 1990 it was 75 days, and from 1991 to 2021 it decreased to 71 days. Autumn and winter are now coming later, spring and summer are coming earlier,” Abdrakhmatov added.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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