Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast Querétaro, Hidalgo, Veracruz

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast Querétaro, Hidalgo, Veracruz

16 October 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending June 2020 indicates deficits of varying intensity in Baja; north-central Mexico; central Mexico from Nayarit on the Pacific to Veracruz on the Gulf; and the southern Gulf region.

Deficits are forecast to be exceptional in central Baja California, northern pockets of Chihuahua and Coahuila, and northern Veracruz State, and extreme in central Durango and southeastern Chihuahua. Some moderate surpluses are expected along the Pacific Coast from Jalisco State into Guerrero.

In Central America, primarily moderate surpluses are expected in southern Guatemala, the southwestern corner of Honduras, El Salvador, western Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Cuba can expect intense deficits in the west. Surpluses are forecast for western Haiti, the Bahamas, and central Cuba.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates that deficits in Mexico will shrink and diminish. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast, however, for Querétaro, Hidalgo, and nearby regions in northern Veracruz State; severe deficits in central San Luis Potosi; and moderate deficits in southeastern Chihuahua and southern Veracruz. Moderate surpluses are expected along the Pacific Coast from Jalisco into Guerrero. Moderate surpluses are also expected in the north between the Yaqui and Bavispe Rivers in Sonora and in pockets of Chihuahua and Nuevo León.

In Central America, surpluses are forecast for southern Guatemala, El Salvador, western Honduras, western Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Surpluses are also expected in the central Bahamas; around Port-au-Prince, Haiti; and central Cuba.

From January through March 2020, exceptional deficits are forecast along Mexico’s Pacific Coast around the Gulf of Tehuantepec and in a pocket of northern Guerrero as conditions along the coast transition in some regions from surplus. Severe deficits will persist in Hidalgo and nearby regions in surrounding states. Surpluses will persist in Nuevo León. In Central America, surpluses will shrink somewhat, with conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) in Guatemala and El Salvador as transitions occur. Surpluses will persist in central Cuba; Port-au-Prince, Haiti; and the Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – April through June 2020 – indicates that exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Baja and moderate deficits will persist in southern Chihuahua and emerge in western Sonora, Mexico. Surpluses are forecast for Nuevo León, Mexico’s central Pacific Coast, small pockets in Central America, central Bahamas, central Cuba, and Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
[added 28 October 2019]
Drought conditions in Mexico’s southern Gulf states continues to impact agricultural output. Veracruz, the country’s largest pineapple producer, lost 5,000 hectares to a dry growing season and fruits that did mature were smaller. This year’s vanilla crop is also expected to suffer, with a projected 60 percent drop in production due to Veracruz’s drought.

Water rationing has been imposed in 12 Mexican states including México, Baja California, San Luis Potosí, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Hidalgo, Querétaro, and Chiapas. At the end of September, 21 of the nation’s largest dams were below 50 percent capacity. Conagua, Mexico’s water authority, reports that water supply to Mexico City was reduced by 1,000 liters per second.

The rainy season in Costa Rica has produced flooding and landslides in the Greater Metropolitan Area of San Jose, destroying homes and inundating sewer systems. The National Meteorological Institute reported accumulated rainfall of between 60 and 75 liters per square meter in two hours.

Similar conditions affected Guatemala in late September and again in mid-October, with heavy rains that produced a landslide in Sacatepéquez that killed one person when several homes collapsed. Flooding in Escuintla damaged 300 homes and affected 1,500 people.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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