South America: Severe water deficits forecast São Paulo State

16 October 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2020 indicates exceptional water deficits in the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso, Goías, and Tocantins, with deficits of varying intensity extending to the west, east, and south in a widespread pattern throughout much of the nation’s bulk. Intense deficits are also forecast in Amazonas in the west and Pará and Amapá in the north, reaching into French Guiana.

ISciences_South_America_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_12mo_panel.png

Venezuela, too, can expect intense deficits in the north surrounding Caracas. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Chile from its northern border stretching south past Valparaiso and Santiago. Some moderate deficits will pepper a path through the Cordillera Occidental Range along Peru’s western length.

Primarily moderate surpluses are forecast for nearly all of Uruguay, as well as a pocket in central Paraguay and Argentina’s northern provinces of Chaco, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, and Chubut in the south. More intense surpluses are expected in northwestern Argentina in La Rioja and Catamarca Provinces. Other areas of surplus include central Colombia, northern Peru, and surrounding O’Higgins/San Martín Lake in Patagonia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade across the continent, overall. However, deficits ranging from severe to exceptional will persist in French Guiana, Suriname, and neighboring Brazilian states of Amapá and Pará, and will emerge in an arc through Brazil’s eastern tip. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for western Amazonas. Severe to extreme anomalies are also forecast for São Paulo State, and deficits could reach exceptional intensity in the metropolis of São Paulo. Deficits elsewhere include exceptional pockets in northern Chile, moderate anomalies in central Chile, and severe anomalies in north-central Venezuela surrounding Caracas.

ISciences_South_America_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_3mo_panel.png

Surpluses will increase in area but downgrade in central Colombia, emerge in northern and eastern Peru, shrink in central Paraguay and northern Argentina, and become widespread and severe in Uruguay.

From January through March 2020, deficits will retreat from nearly all of the continent with the exception of Chile, where anomalies ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast from the northern border past Santiago. Extreme deficits will reach into Bolivia’s southwestern corner. Surpluses, primarily moderate, will shrink somewhat in Colombia, increase somewhat in Ecuador, become widespread across northern Peru, and emerge in Brazil along the western portion of the Amazon River and in northern Pará. Surpluses are expected to shrink in northern Argentina and Uruguay.

In the final quarter – April through June 2020 – normal conditions are forecast for much of the continent. Moderate surpluses are forecast for northeastern Argentina, southern Uruguay, and pockets of north-central and eastern Peru. Moderate deficits are forecast for southern Peru and northern Chile, and intense deficits for southwestern Bolivia.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
[added 23 October 2019]
Persistent drought in Chile continues to affect agriculture prompting a protest by over 100 farmers and ranchers who temporarily shut down parts of Route 5, a national highway. At least 17 people were arrested. The drought has killed over 100,000 animals due to lack of water and fodder, and over 37,000 farm families in central Chile need assistance according to the agricultural minister.

Water shortages have forced Chilean copper company, Anglo American plc, to cut production estimates at its Los Broncos mine after last quarter’s 16 percent drop from the prior year. Chile is the world’s top producer of copper and many copper deposits rest under Chilean glaciers, representing over 80 percent of the continent’s glaciers. A new glacier law is under consideration by the Mining and Energy Commission that would allow mining operations on rocky glaciers that are not listed as protected areas. Experts say that Chile’s ice mass is retreating about one meter per year, threatening the nation’s water supply.

A public health research institute reports an increase in breathing problems and hospitalizations of children in Brazil due to wildfires in the Amazon rainforest. The problems are particularly acute in what is known as “the Arc of Deforestation” in the southern Amazon where 5,000 children were hospitalized in May and June each month this year, twice the norm. In August, fires burned at the highest rate since record-keeping began in 2013.

Rainfall in Argentina has evaded some major agricultural regions including parts of Buenos Aires, Cordoba, and La Pampa Provinces, resulting in a reduction of 2019/2020 wheat forecasts. The nation’s wine producers in Mendoza are suffering as well, with the Mendoza and Tunuyán Rivers receiving just 10 percent of the expected snow melt.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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