Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will diminish across the continent, though intense anomalies will persist in French Guiana, Suriname, Amapá and Pará, Brazil. Severe to extreme anomalies are forecast for São Paulo State. Anomalies elsewhere include deficits in Chile and north-central Venezuela, and surpluses in central Colombia, northern Peru, and Uruguay.
The forecast through October indicates intense water deficits in Brazil along the Purus River, in the southern Amazon Basin, along the Xingu and Tocantins Rivers, and in eastern Pará, Rio Grande do Norte, Mato Grosso, eastern Mato Grosso do Sul, western São Paulo State, and southeastern Minas Gerais. Intense deficits are also forecast for French Guiana, southern Suriname, and northern Chile. Areas of surplus include central Paraguay and northern Argentina.
The forecast through September indicates that the extent of intense water deficits will diminish across the northern nations but will persist in French Guiana and Suriname. In Brazil, intense deficits will persist in Amapá, the southern Amazon Basin, Mato Grosso, Matto Grosso do Sul, western São Paulo State, eastern Minas Gerais, and Espírito Santo. Areas of surplus include central Paraguay and northern Argentina.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water deficits in Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and northwestern Brazil will downgrade considerably. However, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Suriname, French Guiana, and many regions of Brazil including Amapá, the southern Amazon Basin, and São Paulo State. Intense deficits will emerge tracing the Andes Mountains through Peru and into Chile. Surpluses will persist in central and eastern Paraguay and in northern Argentina.
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