Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water deficits in Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and northwestern Brazil will downgrade considerably. However, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Suriname, French Guiana, and many regions of Brazil including Amapá, the southern Amazon Basin, and São Paulo State. Intense deficits will emerge tracing the Andes Mountains through Peru and into Chile. Surpluses will persist in central and eastern Paraguay and in northern Argentina.
The forecast through April indicates that water deficits in the Amazon Basin will shrink. Deficits are forecast for many other parts of Brazil, including intense deficits in Maranhão, eastern Goiás, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and along many rivers. Deficits are also forecast for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and Peru and Chile. Surpluses are forecast for central Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably over the next several months but through February intense deficits are forecast in: southern Amazonas, Brazil; southeastern Venezuela; northern Chile; and southwestern Bolivia. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the northwest quadrant of the continent. Areas of surplus include: Amapá, Brazil, and southern Mato Grosso through western Minas Gerais; northern Bolivia; Paraguay; and the Paraná River in Argentina to Buenos Aires.
Through January, water deficits of varying intensity are forecast across northwestern South America and will be extreme to exceptional in Amazonas and Rondônia, Brazil; southern Venezuela; southwestern Colombia; and a pocket surrounding Quito, Ecuador. Other areas of deficit include: from southern Peru past Santiago, Chile; from Cochabamba, Bolivia past the southern border; and central Mato Grosso, Brazil. Areas of surplus include: eastern Paraguay and across the borders into Argentina and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; and northern Bolivia.
The near-term forecast through November indicates that exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably in Brazil, but intense deficits are expected across the north and moderate deficits in much of the rest of the country. Deficits are also forecast for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and in Peru, southern Bolivia, and Chile, where conditions may be exceptional. Surpluses will moderate in central Colombia; downgrade slightly in Huánuco, Peru; and shrink somewhat in Entre Ríos and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina.
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