Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through September indicates that the extent of intense water deficits will diminish across the northern nations but will persist in French Guiana and Suriname. In Brazil, intense deficits will persist in Amapá, the southern Amazon Basin, Mato Grosso, Matto Grosso do Sul, western São Paulo State, eastern Minas Gerais, and Espírito Santo. Areas of surplus include central Paraguay and northern Argentina.
The forecast through June indicates that water deficits in Brazil will shrink, with nearly normal conditions in Pará and Amazonas, but intense deficits are forecast for Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, western São Paulo, and along many rivers. Surpluses will increase in northeastern states. Exceptional deficits will trace a path along the Pacific Coast from Lima, Peru reaching almost to Santiago, Chile. Surpluses will increase and intensify in Paraguay.
The forecast through May indicates that water deficits in Brazil will shrink and downgrade significantly, though intense deficits are forecast for eastern Minas Gerais, Espíritu Santo, and São Paulo. Surpluses will emerge in northeastern states and will moderate but increase in the south. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Suriname and French Guiana, and deficits of varying intensity for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and Peru, Chile, eastern Bolivia, and Argentina. Surpluses will shrink in northern Bolivia, downgrade in central Paraguay, and moderate in northeastern Argentina and Uruguay.
The forecast through March indicates that water deficits in the Amazon Basin will shrink, but exceptional deficits will persist in southern Amazonas and the center of the country, and intense deficits will emerge Central-West and Southeast states and along the São Francisco River. Other areas of deficit include Peru and Chile. Surpluses will emerge in northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, with exceptional surpluses in eastern Uruguay.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2018 through September 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Venezuela, Somalia, South Africa, India, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 1 February 2019.
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