Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that, though some areas will begin to transition out of water surplus, widespread surpluses will persist from northern Syria into southern and eastern Turkey, from the Euphrates River in Iraq well into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the Caspian coast and the border with Turkmenistan. Deficits will increase in central Turkey and on the Arabian Peninsula and will include exceptional deficits in central Saudi Arabia.
The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and surpluses in eastern Turkey, northern Syria, the Euphrates and eastern Iraq, and western Iran. Intense deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s western and eastern thirds, and pockets of Oman. Extreme deficits will emerge in Qatar but deficits in United Arab Emirates will downgrade. In Iran, deficits will be severe to extreme in southern Yazd and Kerman into Sistan and Baluchistan.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2018 through September 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Venezuela, Somalia, South Africa, India, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 1 February 2019.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through January with conditions approaching normal in Iraq, Syria, northeastern Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Deficits will intensify in Georgia, and extreme deficits will emerge on the Kura River in Azerbaijan. Intense deficits are also forecast for southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and, to a lesser degree, western Turkey and along Turkey’s Black Sea coast.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to nearly disappear after September leaving primarily moderate or severe deficits across the region. However, more intense deficits are expected in Georgia; along Turkey’s northern coast; surrounding the city of Basrah, Iraq; western Yazd Province, Iran; and eastern Yemen. Severe deficits are forecast for the Euphrates River. Overall, water deficits will continue to diminish through March, with mild deficits throughout much of the region. Severe deficits will continue to emerge in western Georgia and western Turkey.
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