Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period May 2022 through April 2023 include: Europe, northwest Africa, Chile, Mexico, and California & Texas (US). Areas of significant water surplus include: China, India, Pakistan, Russia, Colombia, and North Dakota (US). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 5 August 2022.
The forecast through November indicates that widespread, intense water surpluses will persist in the region from southeastern Turkey and northern Syria through northern Iraq into northwestern Iran, and along the southeastern shore of the Caspian Sea and the Iran-Turkmen border. Exceptional deficits are forecast to emerge in a vast block of central Saudi Arabia.
The forecast through October indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist in the region from southeastern Turkey through northern Iraq into northwestern Iran and along the southern shore of the Caspian Sea. Some areas of previous surplus will begin to transition as deficits emerge. Intense deficits are forecast for central Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, moderate to severe deficits in Georgia, and primarily moderate deficits in pockets of western Turkey including Ankara.
The forecast through September indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist from southeastern Turkey through northern Iraq into northwestern Iran and along the southern shore of the Caspian Sea. Surpluses will remain intense, but conditions of both deficit and surplus are also forecast as transitions occur. Deficits are forecast for the southern Arabian Peninsula and will be especially intense in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that, though some areas will begin to transition out of water surplus, widespread surpluses will persist from northern Syria into southern and eastern Turkey, from the Euphrates River in Iraq well into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the Caspian coast and the border with Turkmenistan. Deficits will increase in central Turkey and on the Arabian Peninsula and will include exceptional deficits in central Saudi Arabia.
For more information contact info@isciences.com.
Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.
