Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through January with conditions approaching normal in Iraq, Syria, northeastern Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Deficits will intensify in Georgia, and extreme deficits will emerge on the Kura River in Azerbaijan. Intense deficits are also forecast for southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and, to a lesser degree, western Turkey and along Turkey’s Black Sea coast.
Through November extreme to exceptional deficits will dominate much of Saudi Arabia, southern and western Iraq, Kuwait, large pockets of southern Iran, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for the Levant. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of Turkey and will be severe in central Turkey, along its northeastern coast, and through Georgia.
Intense water deficits will persist in many parts of the region through October after which conditions will moderate overall. For the next several months, exceptional deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and southern Iran. Conditions in Gaza and Israel will be fairly intense as well and severe deficits are forecast for West Bank, Yemen, western Oman, Qatar, and western Iraq. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Turkey and Georgia.
The forecast through August indicates that exceptional water deficits in the northern Arabian Peninsula will shrink but deficits overall in the Peninsula will be widespread. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Lebanon, Israel, and West Bank. Deficits of varying severity are forecast throughout Turkey and Syria, though deficits in western Turkey will downgrade from exceptional. In southern Iran deficits will become more severe, reaching exceptional intensity in Kerman and neighboring provinces.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from March 2018 through February 2019 include: southern Mexico, northern Brazil, North Africa, Europe, Afghanistan, and Southeast China. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Montana and Idaho (US), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Spain, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 June 2018.
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