Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Intense water deficits will persist in many parts of the region through October after which conditions will moderate overall. For the next several months, exceptional deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and southern Iran. Conditions in Gaza and Israel will be fairly intense as well and severe deficits are forecast for West Bank, Yemen, western Oman, Qatar, and western Iraq. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Turkey and Georgia.
Widespread intense water deficits are forecast for the Arabian Peninsula through September, gradually diminishing in extent and severity thereafter. From July through September exceptional deficits will persist across central Saudi Arabia, in southern Iraq, and in Lebanon, and severe to extreme deficits are forecast for Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Iraq west of the Euphrates, and North Khorasan, Iran. Surpluses in Fars and near Tehran, Iran will transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus, receding by early next year. Surpluses along the northern Iran/Iraq border will persist through December, and a pocket of exceptional surplus in central Oman will persist through March 2018.
Exceptional water deficits spanning the Arabian Peninsula are expected to continue through November affecting southern Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, all of Yemen, and most of Oman. Conditions are expected to moderate in early 2018. Moderate to exceptional surpluses in northern Iraq extending into Iran should subside by December. Exceptional surpluses in south central Iran are expected to persist through the forecast period before moderating between December and February 2018. A pocket of exceptional surplus in central Oman persists throughout the forecast period into 2018.
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