Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
Exceptional deficits will mostly resolve in northern, southern, and central countries, but will persist in the Horn of Africa. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to remain.
Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably, though an intense pocket will persist around Kuwait and deficits will be severe in Yemen. Surpluses will downgrade overall but exceptional surpluses are forecast for northern Syria; near Mosul, Iraq; along Iran’s Caspian Sea coast northeast of Tehran; and in Khuzestan, Iran.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through January with conditions approaching normal in Iraq, Syria, northeastern Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Deficits will intensify in Georgia, and extreme deficits will emerge on the Kura River in Azerbaijan. Intense deficits are also forecast for southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and, to a lesser degree, western Turkey and along Turkey’s Black Sea coast.
Intense water deficits will persist in many parts of the region through October after which conditions will moderate overall. For the next several months, exceptional deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and southern Iran. Conditions in Gaza and Israel will be fairly intense as well and severe deficits are forecast for West Bank, Yemen, western Oman, Qatar, and western Iraq. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Turkey and Georgia.
Over the next few months exceptional water deficits will diminish overall in the region but persist in southern Iraq, Kuwait, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Deficits will spread in Turkey, and intense deficits will emerge in Gaza, Israel, West Bank, and Lebanon. After July, deficits in Turkey will moderate overall, but deficits of varying severity are forecast for many parts of the region and are expected to be especially intense in Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, southern Iran, and West Bank.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2018 through January 2019 include: Brazil, southern Venezuela, Libya, Egypt, Gabon, Finland, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho and western Montana (US), southeastern British Columbia (Canada), Tanzania, Kenya, Spain, Hungary, southern Romania, and eastern Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 May 2018.
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