The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
The forecast through November indicates extreme to exceptional water deficits in the north from southeastern Algeria to the Red Sea, and deficits nearly as intense for western Ethiopia, the Atbara River, the Blue and White Nile Rivers, and the intersection of Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan. Deficits may be severe on the Kafue River in Zambia. Scattered surpluses are forecast around West Africa and intense surpluses in Tanzania.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2018 through May 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and southern India. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Heilongjiang, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 September 2018.
Though intense water deficits will persist in northern Africa over the next few months, exceptional deficits will shrink in the north and along the Red Sea, and will nearly disappear from the rest of the continent. Intense deficits will persist in Zambia’s Kafue River watershed. Areas of surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, eastern Uganda, some countries along the northern Gulf of Guinea, central Chad, and northwestern Zambia. Surpluses will be intense in East Africa.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2018 through April 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Sichuan, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 August 2018.
Exceptional water deficits will shrink and downgrade across North Africa and along the Red Sea but deficits will remain widespread and intense. Intense deficits are also forecast for western Ethiopia, southern Gabon, northwestern Botswana, central Zambia, and western Madagascar. Exceptional surpluses will persist in East Africa; extreme surpluses are forecast for the conjoined borders of Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Republic of the Congo; and surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast for westernmost Democratic Republic of the Congo.
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