The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
Through January 2020 deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, though intense deficits are expected in coastal Mauritania, eastern South Africa, and Lesotho. Surpluses will increase in East Africa and in nations along the northern shore of the Gulf of Guinea, with exceptional anomalies in central Nigeria and extreme and widespread surpluses in Tanzania.
The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will downgrade, with moderate anomalies throughout most of the continent, some pockets of greater intensity, and surpluses in Tanzania. Exceptional deficits are forecast in the Ethiopian Highlands. Other areas of significant deficit include Equatorial Guinea, Lesotho, Guinea-Bissau, central Republic of the Congo, eastern Angola, western Zambia and central Zambia and along the Zambezi River, and northern Zimbabwe.
The forecast through February indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably. However, areas with notably intense conditions include western Ethiopia; pockets of northern Somalia, Nigeria, and southwestern Cameroon; southwestern Angola into Namibia; and, Lesotho and the Orange River region of Northern Cape, South Africa. Surpluses are forecast for Tanzania, southern Congo into western DRC and northern Angola, and south-central Chad.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2018 through July 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Amazonas (Brazil), Chile, Germany, Finland, Latvia, Egypt, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Liberia, Paraguay, Myanmar, and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 12 November 2018.
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