Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Through January 2020 deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, though intense deficits are expected in coastal Mauritania, eastern South Africa, and Lesotho. Surpluses will increase in East Africa and in nations along the northern shore of the Gulf of Guinea, with exceptional anomalies in central Nigeria and extreme and widespread surpluses in Tanzania.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates moderate water deficits across northern Africa with large pockets of exceptional deficit in Libya, Egypt, and Sudan. The southern Sahara and the Sahel will be near-normal, and deficits in the Horn will downgrade. Mild deficits will cover much of southern Africa, punctuated by surpluses in East Africa and some pockets of intense deficit from Cameroon through Republic of the Congo, in southern Angola, northern Namibia, and western Botswana.
Exceptional water deficits in North Africa will diminish but persist, and severe deficits are forecast in Gabon and in Nigeria south of the Benue River. Deficits will also persist in western Zambia and are expected to be extreme on the Kafue River. Moderate to exceptional deficits will emerge in central Botswana. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, and northern Uganda, but diminish somewhat in northern Madagascar. Surpluses east of Kinshasa in Democratic Republic of the Congo are forecast to increase in both extent and intensity, becoming severe.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in February for the US West, the Baja Peninsula, the Tibetan Plateau, and far northeastern Russia, including the Kamchatka Peninsula. Nearly all of India will be warmer than normal. Paraguay is expected to be cooler than normal. Eastern Brazil should see above average rainfall, as will central Mexico and western India.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to diminish considerably November through January, but will continue to emerge in coastal Mauritania, western Niger, southeastern Nigeria, and southern Cameroon. Deficits in South Africa are expected to moderate but severe deficits are forecast along the Orange River and from Lesotho through Swaziland. Notable surpluses are expected in southern Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. After January, moderate to severe deficits are forecast across North Africa, mild deficits in the south, and surpluses in Tanzania.
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