Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates moderate water deficits across northern Africa with large pockets of exceptional deficit in Libya, Egypt, and Sudan. The southern Sahara and the Sahel will be near-normal, and deficits in the Horn will downgrade. Mild deficits will cover much of southern Africa, punctuated by surpluses in East Africa and some pockets of intense deficit from Cameroon through Republic of the Congo, in southern Angola, northern Namibia, and western Botswana.
The forecast through December indicates that intense deficits will shrink considerably across northern Africa but emerge across the southern Sahara and into the Sahel. Intense deficits are forecast for the Nile River and western Ethiopia. Mild deficits are forecast for much of Africa’s southern half. Areas of surplus include southern Mali, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burkina Faso, Ghana, coastal and northeastern Nigeria, south-central Chad, Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, and southern Kenya.
Most areas of exceptional water deficit will downgrade through March. Moderate deficits are expected across northern Africa, with more severe conditions in Morocco, Western Sahara, and Guinea-Bissau. Intense deficits are also forecast for southeastern Nigeria, southwestern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Intense deficits will retreat in southern Africa. Surpluses will linger in southern Sudan, northeastern South Sudan, Tanzania, northern Mozambique, and northern Madagascar. After March deficits in northern Africa will intensify, but south of the Sahara milder conditions will prevail.
Exceptional water deficits are expected to diminish considerably, leaving severe conditions across the north but relatively moderate conditions in the south. Some intense deficits are forecast for western Mauritania, southwestern Burkina Faso, the Chinko Nature Reserve in Central African Republic, southwestern Namibia, and Cape Town, South Africa. Surpluses are forecast for southeastern Sudan, northeastern South Sudan, the Niger Delta, Gabon, north-central Uganda, eastern Tanzania, Okavango Delta in Botswana, and the central border between Botswana and South Africa.
The October Outlook indicates a large expanse of exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures forecast from Quebec into Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, and coastal West Africa, along with widespread significant warm anomalies in Western Europe, Russia, and Southeast Asia. Exceptional dry anomalies are forecast for Guinea-Bissau and western Guinea. Areas with a forecast of wet anomalies include Colombia, Peru, Gabon, Java, and northern Australia.
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