Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Though water deficits in the region are expected to diminish and downgrade, the forecast through November indicates severe to exceptional deficits for Mexico’s northern Baja Peninsula and in states along the southern Gulf and across to the Pacific. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for northern Central America and surpluses are expected in Costa Rica. Extreme deficits are forecast eastern Jamaica.
The April 2018 Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in India, East Africa, and northwest Brazil. Significantly warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Far East Russia and Alaska, much of eastern China, particularly the Yangtze River Basin from Shanghai to Chongqing, and eastern Australia from Brisbane to Canberra.
In the next few months water deficits in Baja, Mexico will remain intense, with exceptional deficits emerging in the south. Extreme to exceptional deficits are also forecast for Sonora, Sinaloa, Durango, Nayarit, along with deficits slightly less severe in Chihuahua. Surpluses of varying severity will continue to emerge in pockets of southern Mexico leading into northern Guatemala and Belize, where conditions may be extreme. Severe to exceptional surplus is forecast for Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Jamaica.
Exceptional water deficits are expected to nearly disappear in Mexico April through June, with moderate deficits persisting in Chiapas and Tabasco. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast to emerge in the Baja Peninsula and Sonora and moderate deficits will emerge in Guatemala. From July through September moderate to extreme deficits are forecast to re-emerge in southern Mexico, persist in northern Baja, and emerge in Guatemala, El Salvador, western Honduras, western Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2016 through November 2017 include: Arkansas, Quebec, Brazil, Finland, Denmark, Libya, Niger, Gabon, Madagascar, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, northern Russia, Inner Mongolia, Thailand, western Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, and eastern Australia. Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho, Central California, southwestern Zambia, the Okavango Delta in Botswana, northeastern Afghanistan, and between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers in Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 March 2017.
For more information contact info@isciences.com.
Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.
