Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia through southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Deficits will increase in Northeast China and are expected to be intense in Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. In Southeast China, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast for the Huai River Basin. Moderate deficits are forecast for much of North Korea but deficits may be severe north of Pyongyang.
The April 2018 Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in India, East Africa, and northwest Brazil. Significantly warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Far East Russia and Alaska, much of eastern China, particularly the Yangtze River Basin from Shanghai to Chongqing, and eastern Australia from Brisbane to Canberra.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and into China will increase. Moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Northeast China and North Korea. Deficits in South Korea will downgrade, though severe conditions will persist around Seoul. In Southeast China, deficits will spread and upgrade in Fujian and Jiangxi, becoming severe, and moderate deficits will emerge along the Yangtze River. Exceptional deficits will increase in Hunan and Guizhou, and deficits in Yunnan will become extreme. Exceptional surplus will persist in the Han River watershed. Moderate surplus is forecast the Huai River.
Water surpluses in the Lower Yangtze are expected to become widespread and exceptional. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast for the Middle and Upper Yellow River, Qinghai, and western Tibet. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, deficits in South Korea will increase, and deficits in southeastern China will moderate, except in Fujian. After January exceptional deficits will continue to emerge to form a vast stretch across much of Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. Deficits will emerge around the Bohai Sea, and surpluses in the Lower Yangtze will diminish.
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