Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through February indicates a vast stretch of intense water deficit from southern Mongolia and western Inner Mongolia to China’s western border, including areas of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Hebei, with deficits of somewhat lesser intensity reaching through Beijing and Shanxi. A vast block of intense surplus is expected from the Yangtze River through southeastern China. Moderate surpluses are forecast for South Korea.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and into China will increase. Moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Northeast China and North Korea. Deficits in South Korea will downgrade, though severe conditions will persist around Seoul. In Southeast China, deficits will spread and upgrade in Fujian and Jiangxi, becoming severe, and moderate deficits will emerge along the Yangtze River. Exceptional deficits will increase in Hunan and Guizhou, and deficits in Yunnan will become extreme. Exceptional surplus will persist in the Han River watershed. Moderate surplus is forecast the Huai River.
Water surpluses are forecast to persist through February in a vast area along China’s coast from Jiangsu south through Guangdong and in Hainan, including exceptional surpluses in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, and southern Taiwan. Water deficits will persist through February on the Liaodong Peninsula and in northeast North Korea, and through May near Incheon, South Korea and in southern Shaanxi, eastern Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan with exceptional severity in Yunnan.
Water deficits are forecast to diminish in severity November through January in Northeast China, the Korean Peninsula, and the Shandong Peninsula, but will continue to emerge on Liaodong Peninsula, Guizhou, northeast Guangxi, and eastern Yunnan. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Fujian, but from February through April conditions in Fujian will transition to near-normal. Moderate deficits will emerge in many parts of North Korea.
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