Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Through September, exceptional water deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, as well as in Southeast China and Taiwan. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in the Southeast with some pockets of exceptional deficit lingering in Hunan. Widespread surpluses will diminish overall, but surpluses of varying severity will persist in the Lower and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River, the Han River Basin, Qinghai, Yunnan, Hainan, and western Tibet.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and into China will increase. Moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Northeast China and North Korea. Deficits in South Korea will downgrade, though severe conditions will persist around Seoul. In Southeast China, deficits will spread and upgrade in Fujian and Jiangxi, becoming severe, and moderate deficits will emerge along the Yangtze River. Exceptional deficits will increase in Hunan and Guizhou, and deficits in Yunnan will become extreme. Exceptional surplus will persist in the Han River watershed. Moderate surplus is forecast the Huai River.
Exceptional water deficits will increase in Mongolia and China through April, creating a vast stretch from Xinjiang through Inner Mongolia. Exceptional deficits will emerge in Liaoning and extreme deficits in Hunan. Deficits are forecast to spread on the Korean Peninsula and may be intense near Seoul. Conditions of intense surplus remain in the forecast from Shanghai west through the Han River (Hanjiang) watershed, and exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in northern Sichuan and Qinghai. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue to emerge around the Gulf of Tonkin and in Hainan.
The near-term forecast indicates a vast stretch of exceptional water deficit from Xinjiang through southern Mongolia and eastern Inner Mongolia, and in Shandong, China. Severe to extreme deficits will continue to emerge in South Korea, and the extent of deficits in Fujian and Guangdong will increase somewhat. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in the Han River (Hanjiang) watersheds and the eastern stretch of the Ordos Loop of the Yellow (Huang) River. After March exceptional deficits and surpluses will retreat but some areas of intense anomalies will persist.
The near-term forecast shows a vast stretch of exceptional water deficits from southern Mongolia into Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, China. Intense deficits are expected to emerge in Shandong, China, and will continue to emerge in South Korea. Less severe deficits are forecast for southeastern China and western Taiwan. Surpluses in the Han (Hanjiang) and Huai River watersheds will remain widespread and exceptional. Surpluses are also forecast for Shanghai, the eastern stretch of the Ordos Loop of the Yellow (Huang) River, northern Sichuan, Qinghai, central Tibet, and Hainan.
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