The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in February for the US West, the Baja Peninsula, the Tibetan Plateau, and far northeastern Russia, including the Kamchatka Peninsula. Nearly all of India will be warmer than normal. Paraguay is expected to be cooler than normal. Eastern Brazil should see above average rainfall, as will central Mexico and western India.
Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast across northern Africa, Gabon, central Republic of the Congo, and western Madagascar through July or longer. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in northern Cameroon, eastern Central African Republic, southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Angola, and northern Mozambique. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in northeastern and coastal Kenya, and to re-emerge in south-central Sudan. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast to persist in southeastern Tanzania, western Zambia, northern Botswana, Zimbabwe, and along South Africa’s border with Botswana. After July deficits in the north will persist, though diminish slightly in intensity and extent.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2017 through January 2018 include: Florida (US), Brazil, northern Chile, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, northern Africa, Gabon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Papua New Guinea, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho (US), La Pampa (Argentina), western European Russia, eastern Romania, southeastern Tanzania, the Volga River Basin, between the Ob and the Tom Rivers (Russia), and Kazakhstan. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 May 2017.
Widespread exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge across northern Africa from April through June; deficits of lesser severity are forecast across Africa’s mid-section. Deficits in the Horn of Africa, DRC, and Angola are expected to downgrade to primarily moderate severity. Surpluses are expected in southeast Sudan into South Sudan, southeastern Tanzania, western Zambia, the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, and northern Madagascar. After June deficits across northern Africa are forecast to recede slightly overall, but severe to exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in southern Somalia, and moderate to severe deficits may emerge in northeast Namibia.
Though the extent of exceptional water deficits across the continent will diminish from March through May, severe to exceptional deficits will continue to emerge across northern Africa, especially in Niger. Exceptional deficits are also forecast in southern Somalia and southern Gabon. Deficits are also expected in Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, southeastern Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, Uganda, western Tanzania, Kenya, and northeastern Mozambique. Surpluses are expected in southeast Sudan, the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana into western Zambia, Zimbabwe, and northern South Africa. From June through August the overall picture will remain much the same, but worth noting is that extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast for nearly all of Egypt during this period, and deficits will emerge in Somaliland, northern Cameroon, and southern Angola.
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