Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
The forecast through July indicates widespread water deficits throughout much of Europe, including exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Belarus. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for remaining areas of Europe and will be especially intense in southern Germany and along many rivers including the Danube, Drava, Allier, and Dordogne. Moderate surpluses are forecast for Ireland, and intense surpluses for southeastern Spain.
The forecast through May indicates an increase in the extent of water deficits overall. Though surpluses are forecast for Austria, Switzerland, Norway, and northwestern Sweden, much of the rest of Europe can expect deficit conditions. Exceptional deficits will persist in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, eastern Slovenia, and Croatia. Severe deficits will be widespread in Portugal, Spain, France, and Hungary. Pockets of intense deficit are forecast for many other regions.
Exceptional water surpluses in European Russia will shrink and downgrade. The Ob River Basin will transition from surplus to deficit, with a block of exceptional deficit in the Tobol River watershed south of the city of Tyumen. Intense surpluses are expected to persist around the city of Krasnoyarsk on the Yenisei River. Deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and exceptional deficits in the Fergana Valley, western Kyrgyzstan, and southern Tajikistan. Severe deficits are forecast Kazakhstan along the Ural River in the west leading into Orenburg, Russia.
In the near-term through May, water surplus in Central and Eastern Europe and European Russia is expected to shrink and downgrade, though remain widespread. In France and the UK, however, surpluses will increase in extent. Exceptional deficits will continue to emerge in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and a pocket in central Sweden. A band of deficit conditions will persist across southern Italy, but deficits on the Iberian Peninsula will shrink and downgrade – with some surplus conditions emerging. After May, the forecast indicates a transition away from surplus to mild deficit in many areas.
Exceptional water surplus in European Russia will shrink and downgrade, though widespread surpluses will continue to emerge and will remain intense from St. Petersburg to the Rybinsk Reservoir and in Murmansk. Exceptional surpluses will emerge in the Vakh River Basin stretching east across the Yenisei River between the Angara and Podkamennaya Tunguska Rivers. Deficits near Yekaterinburg will upgrade, deficits around Yamal will downgrade, and deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will moderate. Kazakhstan will transition from surplus to deficit. After April, much of the region will transition to deficits of varying severity.
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