Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates widespread surpluses in the Ob River Basin, deficits in much of the Yenisei River Basin, surpluses in the Lower Volga, and deficits in the Middle and Upper Volga regions. Intense surpluses will persist in southern Turkmenistan but both deficits and surpluses are also forecast as transitions occur. Surpluses are also forecast for eastern Uzbekistan, western Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and northern Kazakhstan.
The forecast through July indicates that exceptional water surpluses will persist in southern Turkmenistan. Deficits will emerge in northern Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and around Aktobe in northwestern Kazakhstan. Surpluses in Russia’s Ob River Basin will shrink and moderate overall, and deficits will emerge in the Yenisei River Basin. In the Volga region, surpluses will persist in the Lower Volga northeast of Volgograd, and deficits are forecast in the Middle Volga region.
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and the North Caucasus region. Moderate deficits are forecast for northwestern Kazakhstan and across the border well into southern Russia, but deficits may be severe along the Ural River. Surpluses are forecast in the eastern and southern Ob River watershed of Russia, northern and eastern Kazakhstan, and eastern Kyrgyzstan.
Water surpluses will shrink in European Russia, transitioning to both deficit and surplus the Northern European Plain. Widespread deficits along the Pechora Sea through Yamal Peninsula and into the Central Siberian Plateau will retreat considerably. Surpluses in the Upper Ob and Tom River regions will diminish but remain widespread. Deficits will increase in the Bolshoy Yugan River watershed in the Middle Ob. Surpluses will persist in northern Kazakhstan, and deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, central Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Exceptional water surplus in European Russia will shrink and downgrade, though widespread surpluses will continue to emerge and will remain intense from St. Petersburg to the Rybinsk Reservoir and in Murmansk. Exceptional surpluses will emerge in the Vakh River Basin stretching east across the Yenisei River between the Angara and Podkamennaya Tunguska Rivers. Deficits near Yekaterinburg will upgrade, deficits around Yamal will downgrade, and deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will moderate. Kazakhstan will transition from surplus to deficit. After April, much of the region will transition to deficits of varying severity.
For more information contact info@isciences.com.
Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.
