Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
The forecast through July indicates that exceptional water deficits will increase in Finland, the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine, and deficits of varying intensity will increase in Eastern Europe, many pockets of Central Europe, Italy, and the northern Balkans. Surpluses will shrink considerably in the U.K.
The forecast through May indicates an increase in the extent of water deficits overall. Though surpluses are forecast for Austria, Switzerland, Norway, and northwestern Sweden, much of the rest of Europe can expect deficit conditions. Exceptional deficits will persist in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, eastern Slovenia, and Croatia. Severe deficits will be widespread in Portugal, Spain, France, and Hungary. Pockets of intense deficit are forecast for many other regions.
Though the extent and intensity of water deficits in Europe will diminish considerably through February, severe to exceptional anomalies are forecast in Finland, pockets of Sweden, southern European Russia, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, western Germany, and eastern Slovenia and the Sava River Basin in Croatia and northern Bosnia-Herzegovina. Areas of surplus include Norway, northern European Russia, and the United Kingdom.
The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, with intense deficits sprinkled throughout but especially prevalent in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula and may be exceptional between the Tajo and Guadiana Rivers, and from Toledo south to Granada. In European Russia, surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for the Don River Basin and much of the Volga River Basin.
In the near-term through May, water surplus in Central and Eastern Europe and European Russia is expected to shrink and downgrade, though remain widespread. In France and the UK, however, surpluses will increase in extent. Exceptional deficits will continue to emerge in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and a pocket in central Sweden. A band of deficit conditions will persist across southern Italy, but deficits on the Iberian Peninsula will shrink and downgrade – with some surplus conditions emerging. After May, the forecast indicates a transition away from surplus to mild deficit in many areas.
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