Europe: Water deficits forecast to increase

19 May 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2021 indicates water deficits in a broad column from northern Finland past the Baltics and south through eastern Romania. Deficits will be exceptional in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, southern Belarus, western Ukraine, southern Moldova, and eastern Romania.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202002-202101_12mo_twitter.png

Deficits of generally lesser intensity are forecast for many pockets in Central and Eastern Europe, central France, Italy, the northern Balkans, and southern Peloponnese, Greece. Areas with a forecast of exceptional deficit include southern Belgium; southwest of Dresden, Germany; and Sicily, Sardinia, and pockets of mainland Italy. A pocket of exceptional deficit is also forecast south of Moscow with deficits of varying intensity east and south.

Widespread surpluses are expected in northern European Russia, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and eastern Spain. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in many regions of Russia including the Kola Peninsula, east of Rybinsk Reservoir, the Severnaya Dvina River, and the Vychegda Lowlands. Surpluses in Spain will be of varying intensity and will include exceptional anomalies in the Region of Murcia. Other areas of surplus include northern France and Athens, Greece.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through July indicates that deficits will increase considerably, and surpluses will diminish. Exceptional deficits will increase in Finland, the Baltics, southern Belarus, and western Ukraine, and widespread deficits of varying intensity will emerge in Eastern Europe and many pockets of Central Europe. Deficits will increase in Italy and severe deficits will increase in central France and in northern nations of the Balkan Peninsula.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202002-202101_3mo_twitter.png

Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Ireland, the U.K., and Denmark with moderate anomalies persisting in eastern England and in a few pockets across the English Channel in France. Surpluses in Athens, Greece will remain intense. On the Iberian Peninsula, moderate surplus anomalies will increase in western Spain and emerge in northern Portugal. Extreme to exceptional anomalies will persist east of Madrid including Barcelona, Valencia, and Murcia. Surpluses in northern European Russia will shrink but will remain intense in the Kola Peninsula, Severnaya Dvina River, and Vychegda Lowlands.

From August through October both surpluses and deficits will shrink but anomalies will persist in many areas. In Finland the extent of exceptional deficit will shrink considerably but deficits will remain widespread and intense in much of the nation. Deficits will shrink and downgrade from the Baltics through Bulgaria, but severe to extreme anomalies are expected in Estonia and southern Belarus. Deficits will be severe on the Dniester River in Ukraine and moderate on the Dnipro. Deficits of varying intensity will persist in Russia around Moscow and to the south. Pockets of primarily moderate deficit are forecast in central Germany leading into Czechia, and in southeastern France, Switzerland, Italy, and Balkan nations along the northern Adriatic Sea. Severe deficits are expected in Peloponnese, Greece. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade slightly in Northern European Russia; shrink in England, persisting in the East of England region; and shrink in Portugal while persisting in a wide belt across central Spain. Surpluses in Athens will moderate, and small pockets of moderate surplus will persist in Macedonia, Greece.

The forecast for the remaining months – November through January – indicates nearly normal water conditions for much of the region with severe deficits lingering in northern Finland and generally milder deficits scattered from southern Belarus through Greece, though severe deficits will emerge in Macedonia, Greece. Surpluses will persist in Spain between Madrid and Valencia and will emerge in Switzerland and Norway.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
The Czech Republic’s environmental minister warns that the nation is facing an unprecedented drought after an unusually warm and nearly snowless winter, threatening harvests and drinking water. With some 80 percent of the country reporting extremely low levels of downstream water, the federal government plans to appropriate US$140 million or more for remedies.

Romania, the second largest grain seller in the European Union, will produce around half to three-quarters as much wheat this year as last due to drought conditions. Crops in a quarter of the country’s counties suffered damages up to 100 percent.

Without significant rainfall soon, Germany’s agricultural industry will face negative impacts, too. April soil moisture measurements showed much of the country at 2 percent or less, disturbingly similar to conditions in April 2019. And dry conditions continue to affect shipping along some parts of the Rhine River, including Cologne where the river level remains too low for normal freight loads, raising cargo surcharges.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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