Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in February for the US West, the Baja Peninsula, the Tibetan Plateau, and far northeastern Russia, including the Kamchatka Peninsula. Nearly all of India will be warmer than normal. Paraguay is expected to be cooler than normal. Eastern Brazil should see above average rainfall, as will central Mexico and western India.
In Russia large pockets of exceptional surplus conditions are forecast for the Volga River Basin and from the Lower Ob River to the Tom River, persisting through March 2018. Deficits will continue to emerge in much of eastern Russia through March, though they are not expected to reach exceptional severity beyond September. Moderate to severe surpluses will emerge from the Ural Mountains to the western edge of the Central Siberian Plateau from October through March. Surpluses will persist in many parts of Kazakhstan and throughout Kyrgyzstan. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan through December, diminishing thereafter.
Widespread pockets of exceptional water surplus conditions will continue across central Russia and northern and southern Kazakhstan for much of the forecast period, moderating towards early 2018. Increased flows are expected in the Ob and Volga River basins. Recent exceptional deficits across northern Russia may retreat somewhat to the northern regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai. Moderate deficits are forecast to develop over much of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from June through November before moderating in early 2018.
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