Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through May indicates widespread water surpluses in the Northern Plains States and Upper Midwest, severe-to-exceptional in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses are expected in Tennessee, the Carolinas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Areas of deficit include central Colorado, southeastern Texas, and northern California.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade through February though intense deficits are forecast for Yemen’s western and eastern thirds and severe deficits in Saudi Arabia’s large south-central region of Riyadh. Surpluses will persist in western Iran north of the Red Sea and across the border into Iraq and will remain intense. Surpluses are also forecast along Iran’s western Caspian Sea coast; north of Kirkuk, Iraq; and in eastern Turkey.
Through November extreme to exceptional deficits will dominate much of Saudi Arabia, southern and western Iraq, Kuwait, large pockets of southern Iran, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for the Levant. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of Turkey and will be severe in central Turkey, along its northeastern coast, and through Georgia.
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