Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
Over the next few months, significant water deficits will emerge in southern Mexico including Michoacán, Guerrero, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Exceptional deficits will also reach into Central America, emerging in Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits will downgrade somewhat in western Cuba but intensify in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica will transition from surplus to deficit.
In the next few months water deficits in Baja will downgrade somewhat. Moderate deficits are forecast for Chihuahua, Coahuila, Tamaulipas, central Mexico, and along the Gulf from Veracruz into Yucatan. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jamaica; deficits are forecast for Haiti and Dominican Republic. After July, intense deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America.
In the next few months water deficits in Baja, Mexico will remain intense, with exceptional deficits emerging in the south. Extreme to exceptional deficits are also forecast for Sonora, Sinaloa, Durango, Nayarit, along with deficits slightly less severe in Chihuahua. Surpluses of varying severity will continue to emerge in pockets of southern Mexico leading into northern Guatemala and Belize, where conditions may be extreme. Severe to exceptional surplus is forecast for Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Jamaica.
Though water deficits are forecast for Mexico over the next six months, they are expected to be primarily moderate, a significant improvement over the prior three months. Through July deficits are forecast in northwestern Mexico; scattered down the Pacific coast and central Mexico; in Yucatan, Tabasco, and Chiapas; and southern Guatemala. After July deficits will continue to emerge in Baja California, Mexico’s southern states, and northern Central America. Some modest surpluses are forecast to emerge in the north along the border of Sonora and Chihuahua.
Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula and will continue to emerge in southern Mexico. Moderate surpluses are forecast in Sonora. In Central America deficits are forecast in Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and eastern Panama. In the Caribbean dry conditions are forecast for Haiti; surpluses in central Cuba will persist through the spring months.
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