The forecast through September indicates water deficits across northern Africa, nearly normal conditions in the Sahel and central African nations, intense surpluses in East Africa, and generally mild deficits in the south.
Africa: Intense water deficits forecast for Nile River & W Ethiopia
The forecast through December indicates that intense deficits will shrink considerably across northern Africa but emerge across the southern Sahara and into the Sahel. Intense deficits are forecast for the Nile River and western Ethiopia. Mild deficits are forecast for much of Africa’s southern half. Areas of surplus include southern Mali, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burkina Faso, Ghana, coastal and northeastern Nigeria, south-central Chad, Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, and southern Kenya.
Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook June 2018
The June Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures (40+ years return period) blanketing a large block of Northeast China and stretching across the border well into Russia. Much of Europe is forecast to be warmer than normal, as well as many parts of Indonesia, while much cooler temperatures will prevail in parts of Central Africa. Conditions are expected to be much wetter than normal for several African nations along the Atlantic near the equator.
Africa: Water deficits persist in Somaliland and Somalia; surpluses in Tanzania
The extent of exceptional water deficits is expected to diminish considerably through October – particularly in the southern half of the continent – but deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast from northern Mauritania through northern Sudan, and in Somaliland, Somalia, and eastern Ethiopia. A large block of exceptional surplus is forecast in eastern Tanzania, and some exceptional surplus is also expected in northern Madagascar. Overall, deficits will continue to downgrade through January 2018, while surpluses will increase in Tanzania and will emerge in Malawi, northern Mozambique, eastern Zambia, Uganda, western Kenya, and along the While Nile in South Sudan.
Africa: Water deficits forecast to emerge in Botswana, NE Namibia
The extent of exceptional water deficits is expected to diminish considerably after September, though deficits of varying severity will remain in the forecast and will likely be more severe in the northern half of the continent. In the near-term, July through September, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in the desert regions of the northern nations, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, northern Niger, and northern Sudan; and also in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon. Exceptional deficits will retreat in southern Namibia during this period but will emerge in the northeastern portion of the country, eastward into neighboring Botswana and across the border into South Africa. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to continue in eastern Tanzania though September but will retreat to the coast by December.