Africa: Water surplus to persist in E. Africa

23 July 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2021 indicates intense water deficits across much of North Africa, including exceptional anomalies, and mixed conditions in Egypt. Exceptional deficits are also forecast from Equatorial Guinea into southeastern Cameroon and western Gabon, and in southwestern Namibia, central Malawi, and Djibouti.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202004-202103_12mo_twitter.png

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in parts of West Africa and will be extreme in Senegal and Guinea. Deficits elsewhere include eastern Central African Republic, northwestern Ethiopia, the central Congo River Basin, northern Angola, northern Mozambique, and Northern and Western Cape in South Africa.

Widespread surpluses are expected in East Africa that will be especially intense in western Kenya, and surpluses are forecast for southern Ethiopia and the White Nile. Elsewhere, surpluses are expected in northern Nigeria, the capital regions of the Congos, west-central Angola, South Africa from southern Orange Free State into Eastern Cape, and a few pockets in eastern Madagascar.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through September indicates that deficits in North Africa will shrink and downgrade from Mauritania through Chad but persist in nations to the north with exceptional deficits in Algeria, severe deficits emerging in southeastern Libya, and transitional conditions in Egypt. Nearly normal conditions, along with some pockets of surplus, are forecast for the Sahel and in central African nations.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202004-202103_3mo_twitter.png

Exceptional deficits are forecast in Equatorial Guinea and western Gabon, downgrading as they reach into neighboring countries to the north and south. Severe deficits are expected in northern Angola, in Swaziland and nearby regions of South Africa, and parts of Eastern and Northern Cape. Relatively mild deficits are predicted for coastal West Africa, much of southern Africa, and western Madagascar.

Surpluses in East Africa will remain widespread, particularly in Tanzania and western Kenya where anomalies will be extreme to exceptional. Surpluses will downgrade slightly in southern Ethiopia but emerge in the north and in Djibouti while exceptional deficits retreat from northern Ethiopia and Eritrea. Other areas of surplus include northeastern Gabon, the capital regions of the Congos, west-central Angola, and South Africa from southern Orange Free State into central Eastern Cape.

From October through December, anomalies will shrink and downgrade, leaving many parts of Africa with nearly normal conditions. Surpluses of reduced extent and intensity will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia. Some surpluses will also persist from Orange Free State into Eastern Cape, South Africa, and surpluses will re-emerge in pockets of Egypt. Generally mild deficits are forecast for West Africa and deficits of greater intensity are expected in southeastern Libya. Deficits will emerge in southern Eritrea and a pocket north of Cape Town, South Africa.

The forecast for the final quarter – January through March 2021 – indicates some significant deficits in southeastern Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, and northern Nigeria. Surpluses in East Africa will continue to shrink, persisting primarily in Uganda.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Lake Karibe, the reservoir for the massive hydropower dam at the border of Zimbabwe and Zambia, is up to 41 percent of capacity from a low of 8 percent earlier in the year. A year-long drought had reduced electricity production leading to frequent power cuts, but in early July generation approached the plant’s full capacity of 1,050-watts.

After nearly a decade of construction, water begin pouring into the reservoir of the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River. The dam essentially gives Ethiopia control over waters flowing into Egypt and negotiations for water-sharing have floundered many times over the past 10 years. On July 21, however, Ethiopia’s prime minister announced a “major common understanding” with Egypt and Sudan, though details remain sparse.

Protesters in Eastern Cape, South Africa were fired on by police using rubber bullets to disperse the crowd, residents of several villages expressing anger over the lack of a regular, clean water supply. Many of the protesters were women, citing the inadequacy of the government response to coronovirus pandemic hygiene protocols in a region that has not had a reliable water source in a decade.

As East Africa continues to battle unprecedented rainfall, a triple threat has developed from the combination of flooding, locusts, and COVID-19. Pandemic protocols closed borders to contain the virus, thereby restricting access to pesticides needed to combat the devastating locust invasion. Food supplies have dwindled as flooding and pests decimate crops. Flooding has displaced over a million people, with many ending up in crowded camps where the threat of viral contagion looms large.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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