Europe: Water deficits in C. Europe & around the Baltic

22 July 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2021 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions of Europe. Deficits will be especially widespread and intense around the Baltic Sea including Estonia, Latvia, Finland, and Sweden.

From the Baltic Sea, a broad path of deficit conditions is expected from Lithuania through Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova, sparing Romania but present in eastern Bulgaria. Anomalies will be moderate overall but much more intense in Belarus’ southern half and severe in the southern tip of Ukraine.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202004-202103_12mo_twitter.png

Widespread deficits are forecast from France through Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany and will include severe to exceptional anomalies in Belgium, Netherlands, and many pockets in northern Germany. Deficits are also forecast for central Switzerland, eastern Slovenia, and eastern Croatia. In Italy, deficits will be exceptional near Venice and in the Dolomite Mountains, and of varying intensity around Bologna, south of Naples, and pockets of Sicily and Sardinia.

In the U.K., some primarily moderate deficits are forecast in England along with transitional conditions. Surpluses are forecast in the Scottish Highlands. Other areas of surplus include central Czech Republic, Romania into Ukraine, southern Serbia into Kosovo, southeastern Greece around Athens, and much of eastern Spain. Widespread surpluses are expected in northern European Russia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through September indicates a distribution pattern of anomalies similar to the prior three months of observed data. Intense deficits will persist around the Baltic Sea and with slightly lesser intensity through Belarus but will shrink and downgrade in Ukraine and nearly disappear from Moldova. Deficits will increase in France but will be primarily moderate, while anomalies will intensify in Belgium, Netherlands, and northern Germany. Other areas of deficit include Switzerland, Austria, Balkan nations along the northern Adriatic Sea, and several pockets in Italy. Transitional conditions are predicted for northern France and England. Surpluses will downgrade in European Russia; shrink on the Iberian Peninsula; increase in Czech Republic, Romania, and southern Serbia; intensify in Kosovo; and persist along Greece’s Aegean Sea coast, remaining intense near Athens.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202004-202103_3mo_twitter.png

From October through December deficits will shrink considerably and downgrade, leaving many areas of Europe with nearly normal conditions. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in Finland and central Sweden, and primarily moderate to severe deficits in Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, Netherlands and nearby in Germany. Some mild to moderate deficits will linger in France and Belgium. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade, too, leaving fairly intense anomalies in eastern Spain and northern European Russia. Some scattered, small pockets of moderate surpluses are forecast in Czech Republic, Serbia, and a few other areas.

The forecast for the remaining months – January through March 2021 – indicates deficits in Finland and central Sweden, and surpluses in Russia, southern Norway, Switzerland and surrounding regions, and pockets in the northern Balkan Peninsula and eastern Spain.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Groundwater wetness and root zone wetness measurements for Central and Eastern Europe were much lower than normal as of June 22, 2020, with a number of regions experiencing lows expected only once every 50 years.

In northern Germany, the soil is extremely dry, and after several successive dry years, farmers fear the consequences of a third year of drought. With little grass in the pastures, some dairy farmers have resorted to grain-feeding their herds.

Central Europe’s forests sustained long-term damage from the 2018 drought, according to recent analysis by the University of Basel, impacts felt by even drought-resistance species.

Météo France reports that rainfall in the nation during the first ten days of July was 70 percent below average. Deficits have prompted officials in Doubs, a department in eastern France, to impose water restrictions. Since mid-July, the prefecture has prohibited the use of water for washing cars, filling pools, daytime watering of lawns and agricultural irrigation, and has closed public fountains. Twelve other departments have also introduced restrictions.

In Ireland, water restrictions imposed on June 9 during a drought were lifted after intense rainfall replenished supplies.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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