The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, particularly in the south, where merely mild deficits are expected. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast across the north and along the southwest bank of the Red Sea. Surpluses will persist in pockets of the western Sahel, emerge in pockets around the Gulf of Guinea, and increase in East Africa around Tanzania.
The forecast through July indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent and across its midsection from the Gulf of Guinea to the Horn of Africa but will intensify across northern Africa with exceptional deficits expected. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the south, with intense deficits in Namibia. Areas of surpluses include Tanzania, northern Madagascar, the mouth of the Congo River, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea.
The May Outlook includes a forecast of exceptional warm anomalies in a number of places including northern Alaska; the State of São Paulo, Brazil and through the Andes from Colombia through northern Chile; and, around the Gulf of Guinea in Africa. Central Tanzania is expected to be much wetter than normal. Widespread, moderate to severe wet anomalies are forecast in a broad path in the U.S. from Michigan through Louisiana.
The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will downgrade, with moderate anomalies throughout most of the continent, some pockets of greater intensity, and surpluses in Tanzania. Exceptional deficits are forecast in the Ethiopian Highlands. Other areas of significant deficit include Equatorial Guinea, Lesotho, Guinea-Bissau, central Republic of the Congo, eastern Angola, western Zambia and central Zambia and along the Zambezi River, and northern Zimbabwe.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2018 through November 2019 include: French Guiana, Finland, Latvia, Angola, Namibia, United Arab Emirates, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kansas, Texas, and Tennessee (US), Syria, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 March 2019.
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