The forecast through August 2019 indicates moderate water deficits across northern Africa with large pockets of exceptional deficit in Libya, Egypt, and Sudan. The southern Sahara and the Sahel will be near-normal, and deficits in the Horn will downgrade. Mild deficits will cover much of southern Africa, punctuated by surpluses in East Africa and some pockets of intense deficit from Cameroon through Republic of the Congo, in southern Angola, northern Namibia, and western Botswana.
Africa: Widespread water deficit in the north; surplus in Tanzania
The forecast through May shows widespread, intense water deficits emerging across northern Africa. Liberia and the Horn of Africa will transition from deficit to near-normal conditions. In Gabon, deficits will downgrade but remain intense, while deficits in central and southern Africa downgrade to moderate. Deficits are also forecast for: Guinea Bissau, western Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, northern Ethiopia, eastern Central African Republic, and western and southern Madagascar. Surplus is forecast for Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, eastern South Sudan, southeastern Sudan, and southern Ethiopia.
Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook for March 2016
Africa: Forecast includes exceptional water surpluses in East Africa, deficits in coastal West Africa, southern Africa
The dominant water security issues of interest in Africa continue to be drought in Coastal West Africa and Southern Africa, and water surpluses in East Africa. Coastal West Africa may continue to experience deficits through May 2016, which may reach inland areas. Drought conditions in Southern Africa are forecast to moderate through November, though severe to exceptional deficits are possible December through May. Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa through May.