Africa: Water deficits persist in West Africa, Southern Africa; surpluses in Tanzania

The dominant water security issues of interest in Africa continue to be drought in Coastal West Africa and Southern Africa, and water surpluses in Tanzania and surrounding regions, as apparent in the 12-month map below which shows 3 months of observed data and 9 months of forecast data.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency has warned of possible food scarcity due to low rainfall in agricultural zones, South Africa's corn estimates for 2015 are the lowest in eight years due to drought in the country's major corn producing provinces, and Botswana has allocated emergency funds in response to the worst drought conditions in 30 years. 

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail for the aforementioned regions of interest, and highlight exceptional water deficits forecast for Egypt August through October. Egypt's Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation reports that Egypt has passed the water scarcity threshold and is predicted to reach "absolute water scarcity" (500 cubic meters per person) by 2025.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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