Water surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in western European Russia, the Upper Ob River and Tom River Basins, and the Transvolga Region, where conditions of both deficit and surplus may emerge. Surpluses are also forecast for many parts of Kazakhstan, and in Kyrgyzstan. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for the Yamal Peninsula and across the Gulf of Ob. Intense deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to diminish considerably leaving only mild deficits through December.
South Asia: Intense deficits forecast for Madhya Pradesh & N Telangana
Intense water deficits are forecast through June 2018 in India’s central state of Madhya Pradesh. In the near-term, through December, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for central states, and moderate deficits will extend north. Gujarat will transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur, but surpluses are expected to recede in other northeastern states and in West Bengal. Surpluses of varying severity are forecast for Nepal and western Bhutan. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for Pakistan and western Afghanistan.
Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense deficits to persist in W Cambodia
The forecast indicates a gradual transition from predominantly surplus conditions to deficit. Western Cambodia and eastern Papua New Guinea, however, show deficit conditions throughout the 12-month forecast. Surpluses will begin to downgrade in the near-term but exceptional surpluses remain in the forecast through December for western Myanmar, northern and southern Laos, and along the west side of the Mekong River in Cambodia down to Phnom Penh. After December severe deficits will begin to emerge in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Middle East: Exceptional water deficits retreat, but severe deficits remain
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to nearly disappear after September leaving primarily moderate or severe deficits across the region. However, more intense deficits are expected in Georgia; along Turkey’s northern coast; surrounding the city of Basrah, Iraq; western Yazd Province, Iran; and eastern Yemen. Severe deficits are forecast for the Euphrates River. Overall, water deficits will continue to diminish through March, with mild deficits throughout much of the region. Severe deficits will continue to emerge in western Georgia and western Turkey.
East Asia: Vast surpluses forecast for Upper, Middle Yangtze, esp Hanjiang River
Widespread intense deficits will emerge in Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Taiwan. Widespread intense surpluses are forecast for a vast stretch of the Upper and Middle Yangtze River, with exceptional surpluses in the Han River watershed. Aforementioned deficits may persist through March and surpluses may persist longer. Severe surpluses will continue to emerge along the Middle and Lower Yellow River through December. Surpluses in the western Pearl River watershed and around the Gulf of Tonkin are forecast to diminish slowly through March. Intense surpluses will continue to emerge in eastern Qinghai while intense deficits are forecast in the west.