Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates that water surpluses of varying intensity will continue to dominate the breadth of India with intense anomalies in central Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, western Maharashtra, south-central Karnataka, central Chhattisgarh, and the Far East. Surpluses are also forecast for Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, rivers in Pakistan, and central Afghanistan.
The widespread exceptional water deficits that have dominated Afghanistan in recent months will moderate through December though deficits will remain more intense northeast of Kabul. Moderate deficits are forecast for southern Pakistan. In India, deficits will also moderate but will be intense along the Tungabhadra River in the southwest, and in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Arunachal Pradesh. Areas of surplus include northernmost India, Uttar Pradesh, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will persist in Afghanistan, but exceptional deficits will retreat to the southwest. Deficits in southwestern Pakistan will downgrade but remain intense. In India, significant deficits are forecast in the southern third of the country and may be exceptional in pockets of Karnataka and Kerala. Surpluses will downgrade but remain intense in Jammu and Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Tripura, and Mizoram, Nepal, and Bangladesh.
Through October, exceptional water deficits will dominate Afghanistan’s west and northwest. In India, moderate deficits will cover much of the southern two-thirds of the country with more intense deficits in western Telangana, Karnataka, southeastern Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and central Chhattisgarh. Surpluses will downgrade but remain intense in Bangladesh, and will shrink and moderate in Nepal, though remaining exceptional along the Gandaki River.
Through September, exceptional water deficits will increase in Afghanistan, reaching the southern border to dominate roughly two-thirds of the country. Deficits in southern Pakistan are expected to shrink and moderate; moderate surpluses are forecast along the Indus River in the north. In India, primarily moderate deficits will persist in a wide band across the center of the country, but may be more intense in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha. Deficits will increase and intensify in southern India. Surpluses in Bangladesh will shrink and downgrade.
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