Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through September indicates that many parts of India will return to normal water conditions. However, deficits are forecast in southern Karnataka and in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Moderate surpluses will increase in Gujarat and western Maharashtra. Widespread, intense surpluses will persist in Afghanistan, and surpluses in Pakistan will shrink but persist.
The forecast through June indicates that intense water deficits will emerge throughout much of India south and west of the Gangetic Plain. Intense surpluses are forecast in northern India, northern Pakistan, and much of Afghanistan. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in many of these regions. Deficits will emerge in southern Afghanistan and will be severe in the southwest. Surpluses are forecast in Nepal, Bangladesh along the Padma River and in the northeast, and nearby regions of India.
The forecast through May indicates that exceptional water deficits will shrink in southern India but are expected along the Tungabhadra River through Karnataka and in northern Kerala. Moderate deficits are forecast from Gujarat to Andhra Pradesh, and more intense pockets in Madhya Pradesh. Areas of surplus include northern India and the Gangetic Plain, Bangladesh, Nepal, northern Pakistan and the Indus River system, and Afghanistan.
Through September, exceptional water deficits will increase in Afghanistan, reaching the southern border to dominate roughly two-thirds of the country. Deficits in southern Pakistan are expected to shrink and moderate; moderate surpluses are forecast along the Indus River in the north. In India, primarily moderate deficits will persist in a wide band across the center of the country, but may be more intense in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha. Deficits will increase and intensify in southern India. Surpluses in Bangladesh will shrink and downgrade.
Exceptional water deficits will remain widespread in Afghanistan, while decreasing slightly. Deficits in Pakistan will generally moderate. India will transition from widespread water deficits to milder conditions. However, exceptional deficits are forecast surrounding Chandigarh, moderate deficits in Rajasthan, and intense deficits in the Far Northeast. Surpluses are expected in Jammu and Kashmir, northern Odisha, West Bengal, and along the Tapi River. Intense surpluses are forecast for the Gandaki River in Nepal. Moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast for northern Bangladesh.
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