Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India and Nepal
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S. 

United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge in SW states
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will resolve throughout much of Southeast Asia. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in some countries within Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses emerge in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam

Jharkhand

South Asia: Intense water deficits will increase in Afghanistan

South Asia: Intense water deficits will increase in Afghanistan

Through September, exceptional water deficits will increase in Afghanistan, reaching the southern border to dominate roughly two-thirds of the country. Deficits in southern Pakistan are expected to shrink and moderate; moderate surpluses are forecast along the Indus River in the north. In India, primarily moderate deficits will persist in a wide band across the center of the country, but may be more intense in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha. Deficits will increase and intensify in southern India. Surpluses in Bangladesh will shrink and downgrade.

South Asia: Water deficits forecast for Madhya Pradesh through Chhattisgarh

South Asia: Water deficits forecast for Madhya Pradesh through Chhattisgarh

The forecast through September indicates the emergence of moderate to extreme water deficits throughout much of India, which may be most intense from Madhya Pradesh to Odisha, and from southern Maharashtra down through Karnataka into Tamil Nadu. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected to persist in southwestern Afghanistan. Surpluses are forecast east of Kabul, Afghanistan, along the Indus River north of Islamabad, northeastern Jammu and Kashmir, along the Gandaki River in Nepal, and in Bangladesh. From October through December primarily moderate deficits are forecast for India’s northern half, and near-normal conditions in the south. In early 2018 intense deficits may develop in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Odisha, & Gujarat

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Odisha, & Gujarat

The forecast for India through March includes widespread exceptional deficits in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Odisha, and Gujarat, with deficits of varying severity for much of the remainder of the country. Surpluses will persist in northwest Jharkhand, West Bengal, Nepal, and Bangladesh. After May deficits in India will diminish considerably, though severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for northwest Gujarat and across the border into Pakistan, and in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits in Gujarat and southern India

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits in Gujarat and southern India

Exceptional water deficits will persist in southern India through February and will emerge in Gujarat and persist through May. Surpluses in the Chambal and Ganges Basins will transition to both deficits and surpluses through February, after which surpluses are forecast in West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar. Surpluses are forecast in western Myanmar through February, and in Nepal and Bangladesh through May. Moderate deficits are expected in southern Pakistan through February.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List December 2016

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List December 2016

Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2016 through August 2017 include: the US South; Chile; Scandinavia; northern Africa, southern Somalia, and South Africa; the Middle East; southern India; Cambodia; and northern Russia. Water surpluses are forecast for: southern Minnesota, Nicaragua, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and Jiangsu and Shanghai, China This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 6 December 2016.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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