The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
The overall progression of water conditions in Australia for the next 12 months indicates few significant anomalies. Pockets of exceptional surplus are forecast to persist through May along the southern coast of Western Australia, and east of Port Pirie on Spencer Gulf in South Australia. Moderate deficits in Far North Queensland are expected to persist through August. Deficits may also linger south of Perth and in Tasmania.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2016 through August 2017 include: the US South; Chile; Scandinavia; northern Africa, southern Somalia, and South Africa; the Middle East; southern India; Cambodia; and northern Russia. Water surpluses are forecast for: southern Minnesota, Nicaragua, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and Jiangsu and Shanghai, China This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 6 December 2016.
The forecast through January shows water surpluses in the Warrego River Catchment in Queensland, between Port Pirie and Adelaide in South Australia, between the Lachlan and Murray Rivers in New South Wales, and along the southern coast of Western Australia. Mild surpluses are forecast to emerge from King Sound in Western Australia to the western shore of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Deficits are forecast south of Perth, along the Limestone Coast, southeast of Melbourne, and North Island, New Zealand.
Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist through December in central Queensland, along the southwest coast of Western Australia, and east of Spencer Gulf. Moderate to exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Murray Basin through March, and moderate deficits along South Australia’s Limestone Coast and southern Tasmania. Deficits in New Caledonia are expected to diminish.
Water deficits are forecast to persist through May in Tasmania, the southwestern tip of Western Australia, and from Adelaide through Victoria, though deficits of exceptional severity will diminish considerably in extent. Surpluses are forecast for central Queensland and parts of the Murray-Darling Basin through November. Far north reaches of Australia are expected to transition from deficit to moderate surplus from December through February.
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