South Asia: Deficits spread in Afghanistan, Pakistan, N India

South Asia: Deficits spread in Afghanistan, Pakistan, N India

23 April 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in December 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in India will resolve, leaving moderate surpluses in central and eastern portions of the country. Deficits are expected to spread in portions of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northern India. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Southwestern Afghanistan, primarily within the Nimruz province. 

  • Southern Pakistan, mostly occurring in the Chagai province.

  • Northern India, in eastern and central areas of Himachal Pradesh.

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • East-central India, spreading through areas of the states of Jharkhand, southern Uttar Pradesh, and Odisha. 

  • West-central India, in central regions of the state of Rajasthan. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

 FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2025 indicates that widespread transitional conditions in India will dissipate. Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in areas near the city of Jaipur, as well as western coastal areas of Gujarat and eastern Maharashtra. These surpluses continue south into Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in regions of western Rajasthan and the Sindh and Balochistan provinces of Pakistan. Continuing west, these deficits continue into western and southwestern Afghanistan, within the Nimruz province and in western areas of the Herat and Farah provinces.  

From July through September 2025, surpluses in southern India will mostly resolve. Moderate surpluses are expected to remain in east-central India and in coastal portions of Tamil Nadu. Moderate surpluses will also continue in areas of Sri Lanka. Severe to exceptional deficits will arise in eastern Himachal Pradesh. 

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2025 – expects moderate surpluses to spread further throughout east-central and central India. Moderate surpluses are also expected in eastern coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh. Isolated portions of western Rajasthan may observe exceptional deficits. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
India and Pakistan are experiencing extreme heatwaves earlier than usual. In Pakistan, temperatures could potentially rise to 120 degrees Fahrenheit, while India’s capital, New Delhi, has already reached 104° degrees Fahrenheit several times this month. Agricultural regions, like Rajasthan, are experiencing disruptions in energy supplies, crop death, and heat-related illnesses. 

Severe weather has been present in Jammu and Kashmir since April 17th and has caused at least five deaths and prompted over 100 rescues. The heavy rainfall triggered cloudbursts, flash floods, and landslides, which damaged infrastructure and destroyed homes. According to reports, the region received 575% more rainfall than normal for this time of year.

Over 137,000 farmers in Sri Lanka have been affected by a low-pressure system occurring in the Bay of Bengal, which has stifled crop production, particularly in areas harvesting rice, tea, and coconut. Experts cite irregular rainfall, shifting weather patterns, and flooding as major contributors to crop death. Some farmers have started to adopt flood-tolerant crops to adapt to the changing climate.

Farmers in northern Afghanistan face persistent drought and water scarcity as farmlands dry out. In the province of Faryab, farmers await the development of the Qosh Tepa canal, a major irrigation project they see as vital for saving their crops. Fayba’s agriculture has been stifled by repeated droughts and insufficient irrigation, and a lack of appropriate infrastructure. As water remains scarce, these communities risk deeper poverty and worsening food insecurity.

In India’s Thar Desert, vegetation has grown by 38% over the past 20 years as monsoon rainfall increases and agriculture expands. The desert, which spans 77,000 square miles and is home to over 16 million people, has seen more urbanization and crop production as water and energy become more accessible. Satellite data from 2001 to 2023 reveals significant vegetation growth and a 64% rise in precipitation during the summer monsoon. Though the greening offers an increase in food security, other challenges are presented, such as the risk of flooding and the depletion of groundwater resources used for irrigation.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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