East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin

23 April 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in December 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern China, while regions of the Yangtze River Basin will observe an expansion of exceptional deficits across the region. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • In the Yangtze River Basin, appearing in regions of southern Yunnan, southern Guangxi, and southwestern to central Guangdong. Further north, portions of northern Jiangxi and central Hunan. 

  • Northwestern China, primarily in eastern Xinjiang, as well as western Gansu and western Inner Mongolia. 

    Southern Mongolia, within southern areas of the Govi-Altai province. 

  • Western Tibet, in the westernmost portions of the Ngari Prefecture. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Northeastern China, primarily in western Jilin, western Liaoning, and eastern Inner Mongolia. 

  • Pockets of central China, most notably in the Ulanqab region of Inner Mongolia. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will cover significant areas of southern provinces, with the most intense anomalies occurring in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Hubei. To the northwest, exceptional deficits are anticipated in central to eastern Xinjiang. Northern and eastern Tibet can expect pockets of severe to exceptional surplus, which continue east into Sichuan and southern Gansu. 

From July through September 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to increase in size across Xinjiang, reaching west-central to east-central areas of the province. Exceptional deficits may also emerge in western Tibet. Portions of eastern Inner Mongolia and western Shandong will observe moderate to severe surpluses. 

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2025 – indicates that deficits in northwestern China will further diminish. Some portions of northwestern and northeastern China may observe moderate to severe surpluses. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On April 19th, the Guangxi Water Resources Department launched a Level 3 emergency response as severe drought continues to affect the region. Since mid-March, 3,678 monitoring stations in Guangxi have reported no sufficient rainfall, with 1,017 stations experiencing over 25 consecutive days of dryness. According to reports, 97.5% of Guangxi is currently experiencing a severe drought, and 68.7% suffers from extreme drought. 

Agriculture in Guangxi has also been significantly affected by the lack of rainfall and rising temperatures. Sugarcane farming in Chongzuo, a city known as the "Sugar Capital of China," continues to decline as farmers spend tens of thousands of yuan just to keep crops alive, dealing with low germination and yield rates. Experts describe this as a once-in-a-century drought, primarily caused by a prolonged lack of rainfall since September of last year. Over 67% of Guangxi’s sugarcane agricultural areas are at medium to high drought risk.

According to the Shaanxi Provincial Water Resources Department, the average rainfall in the Shaanxi province has been 80% lower than the multi-year average, with water storage capacity of reservoirs steadily decreasing compared to month-to-month analysis. To combat water scarcity, the Provincial Water Resources Department announced a “level IV” emergency response on April 16th, which instructs civilians to closely observe weather conditions, focus on drought relief dispatch of water projects, and strengthen irrigation operations. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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