Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits persist in Laos, Vietnam

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits persist in Laos, Vietnam

23 April 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in December 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in Maritime Southeast Asia will diminish, though some regions will observe continuing severe to extreme surpluses. Isolated regions in Mainland Southeast Asia will observe exceptional deficits. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Indonesia, appearing in much of West and East Nusa Tenggara, as well as northern coastal regions of Sabah and eastern coastal Riau.

  • Southernmost regions of Malaysia, as well as most of Singapore. 

  • Philippines, with the most intense anomalies appearing in central and northern islands. 

  • Southern Papua, across the island of Dolok and along the country’s southern coast. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Northern Laos, spreading through regions near the Nam Ngum Reservoir and in the Phongsaly province. 

  • Northern Vietnam, in the Cao Bằng province. 

  • Indonesia, occurring within areas of northern Sumatra, near Lake Toba.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in several regions of Sumatra, with the most intense anomalies appearing in southern regions of the island’s southern coast. These deficits continue into the westernmost areas of Java. Isolated regions of extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in central Thailand and northernmost areas of Vietnam. Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in much of central to northern Philippines, northern Borneo, and along the southern coasts of Papua and Papua New Guinea. 

From July through September 2025, severe to extreme deficits are expected to continue in regions of Sumatra, primarily within northern areas. Moderate deficits are expected in areas within eastern Borneo and northeastern Kalimantan, as well as northern and southern coastal areas of Papua and Papua New Guinea. Moderate to severe surplus is anticipated in peninsular Thailand and southern Myanmar, specifically in areas bordering the Andaman Sea and western areas of the Gulf of Thailand. Isolated pockets of moderate to severe surpluses are expected in central islands of the Philippines and along the western coast of the island of Luzon. 

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2025 – indicates that deficits in Indonesia will continue to dissipate. Moderate surpluses are expected in West Java and in southwestern Kalimantan. Widespread moderate deficits may arise in portions of Thailand and Laos. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

At least 10 lives were lost as floods and landslides hit Java and Kalimantan on April 10th. Heavy rainfall flooded in Kalimantan’s Murung Raya and Penajam Paser Utara regencies, causing the Gula, Kohong, Tuhup, Miyango, and Laung rivers to burst. Additionally, a landslide in Java killed 10 people after being triggered by heavy rainfall in the Mojokerto district. 

In the Malaysian state of Slangor, several districts were hit by flash floods following intense rainfall on April 11th. Officials reported that Petaling was one of the districts worst affected, with water levels rising up to 0.61 meters in some areas. According to Selangor Fire and Rescue Department Assistant Director of Operations Ahmad Mukhlis Mukhtar, 20 houses were impacted by the flooding, with six victims forced to evacuate. Mukhtar also reported that 30 houses in Kampung Seri Aman, Puchong were flooded, affecting 120 victims.

On April 21st, the town of Yishun in Singapore experienced flash flooding in its Yishun Ave 7 area, making it the third flash flood the town has seen in just nine days. PUB, Singapore’s National Water Agency, stated that “this location has experienced flooding over the past two weeks due to heavy rain temporarily overwhelming the drainage capacity of the roadside drains,” designating it as a flood hot spot and announced plans to enhance drainage in the area. 

Droughts are becoming more intense and frequent in the Volgograd Region, occurring at more than 2.5 times the global rate. As a result, officials updated plans to address worsening environmental conditions in the region. Currently, only 6.2% of the region consists of forested areas, and efforts continue to expand forest growth in previously unforested areas, or afforestation. Recent years have seen a sharp decline in precipitation, with 2009 to 2012 categorized as the driest period in 150 years. 

Russian scientists recently classified three regions as most vulnerable due to climate change. The study analyzed areas affected by heatwaves, droughts, forest fires, and melted permafrost, identifying Voronezh, Moscow, and Chelyabinsk as the regions most at risk. Experts anticipate these regions will face compounded risks jeopardizing human health, economic stability, and agriculture. 

Coffee prices in Russia are expected to increase by up to 50% as drought affects agricultural regions of Brazil, a major exporter of the crop. Premium coffee types such as Geisha, Bourbon, and Typica are expected to see the most dramatic rises in cost – up to 50% – while more standard coffee types like arabica beans potentially rising by 30 to 40%.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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