Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in European Russia, Urals, Buryatia

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in European Russia, Urals, Buryatia

23 April 2025

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in December 2025 indicates that widespread surpluses in southwestern Russia will mostly diminish. Exceptional deficits are expected in portions of the Urals, European Russia, northern coastal Russia, and in regions east of Lake Baikal. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Southeastern Russia, within the Republic of Buryatia, in areas east of Lake Baikal. These anomalies continue east into Zabaykalsky Krai. 

  • Northern Russia, in northern portions of Yalamo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and northern coastal areas of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District.

  • Western Russia, in central regions of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and in much of portions of the central and southern Urals. 

  • Isolated pockets of southern Kazakhstan, which spread further south into central and eastern Uzbekistan, and throughout Turkmenistan. 

Transitional conditions are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Russia, in areas of Krasnoyarsk Krai near Lake Pyasino, the city of Norilsk, and the Yeinsei River. 

  • Southern Russia, in regions near the Ust-Kutsky District in the Irkutsk Oblast.

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Kazakhstan, near the capital city of Astana.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will be widespread throughout northern Russia, covering portions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, northern and central Krasnoyarsk Krai, northern Komi Republic, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Regions north of Lake Baikal, in southern Irkutsk Oblast and southern Sakha Republic, can expect widespread severe to exceptional surpluses. North-central Kazakhstan, in areas near the city of Astana, can expect severe to extreme surpluses. Exceptional deficits are anticipated in the southern and central Urals, peninsular areas of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, northern coastal Krasnoyarsk Krai, and portions of Buryatia and Zabaykalsky Krai. Exceptional deficits are expected to be throughout areas along the southern border of Uzbekistan and into northeastern regions of Turkmenistan. Exceptional deficits are forecast in areas northeast of Kazakhstan’s Aral Sea. 

From July through September 2025, exceptional deficits will be present in coastal areas of Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Yamalsky District, West Siberia, and the Tyumen Oblast. Exceptional deficits are also expected in Buryatia, and southern Krasnoyarsk Krai. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to cover much of central and northern Krasnoyarsk Krai, as well as portions of the Ural Mountains. North-central and eastern Kazakhstan should anticipate isolated pockets of severe to extreme surpluses. 

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2025 – indicates that regions of southwestern Russia near the Volga River will continue to experience exceptional deficits, as well as areas near the city of Tyumen, coastal areas of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. And western regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue in north-central Kazakhstan. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Wheat prices increased by almost 3% on the Chicago Board of Trade as drought and hailstorms damage wheat crops in Russian agricultural areas. Destructive weather and dry conditions continue to impact in the Black Sea region, reducing the amount of wheat crops available to export, as well as inflating prices. Global wheat trade is expected to decline, even as global stocks slightly rise but remain at their lowest since the 2015 to 2016 season. 

Regions in Siberia and Russia’s Far East are experiencing massive wildfires at the start of its 2025 wildfire season. More than 52 fires have been reported across over 41,000 hectares, with the worst instances occurring in the Zabaikalsky region, where a state of emergency has been declared. The fires, driven by an early spring, snow drought, and human activity, are being intensified as strong winds affect the area. Homes and infrastructure have already been damaged, with experts warning that destruction could potentially exceed past wildfire records. 

As floods worsen across Russia, locals voice concern over complacency and lack of preparedness as officials rely on religious ceremonies to combat flood events rather than invest in resilience. In the city of Ishim, a bishop conducted an aerial prayer service hoping to prevent flooding from the Ishim River, with officials advising residents to prepare for flooding. “A very high water level is expected in the Ishim River, so we cannot afford to relax!" said Mayor Fyodor Shishkin. Ishim is projected to be hit by annual floods in April.

Droughts are becoming more intense and frequent in the Volgograd Region, occurring at more than 2.5 times the global rate. As a result, officials updated plans to address worsening environmental conditions in the region. Currently, only 6.2% of the region consists of forested areas, and efforts continue to expand forest growth in previously unforested areas, or afforestation. Recent years have seen a sharp decline in precipitation, with 2009 to 2012 categorized as the driest period in 150 years. 

Russian scientists recently classified three regions as most vulnerable due to climate change. The study analyzed areas affected by heatwaves, droughts, forest fires, and melted permafrost, identifying Voronezh, Moscow, and Chelyabinsk as the regions most at risk. Experts anticipate these regions will face compounded risks jeopardizing human health, economic stability, and agriculture. 

Coffee prices in Russia are expected to increase by up to 50% as drought affects agricultural regions of Brazil, a major exporter of the crop. Premium coffee types such as Geisha, Bourbon, and Typica are expected to see the most dramatic rises in cost – up to 50% – while more standard coffee types like arabica beans potentially rising by 30 to 40%.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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