Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The overall progression of water conditions in Australia for the next 12 months indicates few significant anomalies. Pockets of exceptional surplus are forecast to persist through May along the southern coast of Western Australia, and east of Port Pirie on Spencer Gulf in South Australia. Moderate deficits in Far North Queensland are expected to persist through August. Deficits may also linger south of Perth and in Tasmania.
The forecast through January shows water surpluses in the Warrego River Catchment in Queensland, between Port Pirie and Adelaide in South Australia, between the Lachlan and Murray Rivers in New South Wales, and along the southern coast of Western Australia. Mild surpluses are forecast to emerge from King Sound in Western Australia to the western shore of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Deficits are forecast south of Perth, along the Limestone Coast, southeast of Melbourne, and North Island, New Zealand.
Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist through December in central Queensland, along the southwest coast of Western Australia, and east of Spencer Gulf. Moderate to exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Murray Basin through March, and moderate deficits along South Australia’s Limestone Coast and southern Tasmania. Deficits in New Caledonia are expected to diminish.
For more information contact info@isciences.com.
Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.
